Scottish Premiership Matchweek 11: Celtic Are Obvious, Hibs Are Oddly Short, and Hearts Count Their Absentees

The Betting Edge | Scottish Premiership | Matchweek 11 | Wednesday 28 October 2026

Celtic are the likeliest winners on this midweek card, but the more interesting betting questions are elsewhere. Can Aberdeen justify favouritism against an improving Falkirk? Why are bottom club Hibernian so short away to St Mirren? And how much of Hearts' excellent home record survives a thoroughly inconvenient injury list?

Those are the questions worth paying for. Simply noticing that Celtic are quite good has already occurred to the bookmaker.

All six Premiership fixtures this round take place on Wednesday 28 October. My preferred approaches are Falkirk with draw protection, goals at McDiarmid Park, and St Mirren avoiding defeat. Each has a price condition. The score predictions are separate judgements and do not make every related market a bet.

Suggested caption: Midweek football under the lights. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org

The table is stretching at the top and squeezing below

Scottish Premiership table before Matchweek 11
PosClubPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic10901256+1927
2Rangers10721177+1023
3Hearts106132215+719
4Dundee United104331414015
5Dundee104241412+214
6St Mirren104151118-713
7Falkirk103341212012
8St Johnstone103341115-412
9Aberdeen103251213-111
10Motherwell102261118-78
11Kilmarnock102261023-138
12Hibernian102171016-67

Celtic lead Rangers by four points and Hearts by eight. Their 25 goals are the division's best attacking return; six conceded is its best defensive record. Rangers have the most clean sheets, five in ten, and their underlying defensive figure of 1.08 expected goals conceded per match is better than Celtic's 1.31.

That distinction matters. Celtic's results have been excellent, but allowing chances worth roughly 13.1 xG while conceding six suggests the current defensive return should not be treated as an automatic weekly entitlement. Rangers, meanwhile, have scored 17 against approximately 22.2 xG. Their finishing has room to improve without their chance creation needing a complete renovation.

Dundee United moved fourth by beating Aberdeen 3-2. Their five-match unbeaten league run has produced 11 points. Dundee remain fifth despite losing at St Mirren, and Saints' victory lifted them into sixth. Falkirk and St Johnstone are only one point outside that position; Aberdeen are two behind. The top-six conversation is crowded enough without anyone ordering commemorative stationery.

Motherwell are the conspicuous disappointment relative to last season's fourth-place finish. Six successive league defeats have left them tenth. Hibs sit bottom after seven defeats in ten; their new manager, Marink Reedijk, has lost his first three competitive matches. Newly promoted St Johnstone, by contrast, have a respectable 12 points despite Saturday's heavy defeat at Ibrox.

The league has produced 169 goals in 60 completed matches, an average of 2.82. Home teams account for 90 goals, away teams 79. Home wins number 26, away wins 23 and draws 11: home advantage exists, but it has hardly closed the borders.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35 of 60 matches, or 58.3%; BTTS (both teams to score) in 33, or 55%. Under 3.5 has landed in 75%. At least one side has kept a clean sheet in 27 matches, or 45%. Across the 120 individual team appearances, there have been 29 clean sheets, a 24.2% rate. These are different denominators and should stay that way.

↑ Back to Contents

The scoring race has three leaders

Leading scorers, with assists and player xG
PlayerClubLeague goalsAssistsPlayer xG
Benjamin NygrenCeltic645.55
Camilo DuranCeltic656.39
Josh FowlerSt Johnstone614.77
Jacob MurrellFalkirk505.28
Ryan NaderiRangers524.82
Bradley FinkDundee403.66
Calvin MillerHearts413.79
Claudio BragaHearts425.03
Kevin NisbetAberdeen434.80

Nygren, Duran and Fowler share the lead on six league goals. Duran's goal at Hibs was his tenth for Celtic across competitions, which is a different total. His league return is six, supported by 6.39 xG and 16 shots on target. He is producing chances as well as highlight clips.

Fowler's six goals in 650 minutes work out at approximately one every 108 minutes. His 4.77 xG is healthy, although six goals from 13 shots represents finishing that may cool. Murrell's five goals from 5.28 xG are supported by the quality of his opportunities. His brace at Hibs showed how dangerous he can be when Falkirk reach him early.

Duran and Hearts' Josh McPake share the assist lead on five. Nygren is the standout chance creator: 29 key passes, 3.51 per 90 minutes, and a league-leading 4.09 expected assists (xA). McPake has 3.96 xA; Falkirk's Ryan Strain has four assists, 21 key passes and 3.91 xA. Jesse Randall's 22 key passes make him an important outlet for Dundee United at Celtic Park.

Calvin Miller converted twice against St Mirren on 10 October, while Murrell scored from the spot against Dundee that day. Both belong on the penalty watchlist, subject to starting and retaining the duty.

↑ Back to Contents

Recent league form

Results run from oldest to newest. Goals are totals across the last five league matches.

Last five league results and goals, oldest to newest
ClubLast fiveGoals forGoals against
CelticWLWWW123
RangersWWWDW113
HeartsLDWLW1010
Dundee UnitedDWWDW94
DundeeLWWDL88
St MirrenLLLLW313
FalkirkWDLWW95
St JohnstoneLDWDL37
AberdeenWDLWL106
MotherwellLLLLL313
KilmarnockWDLWL69
HibernianLDLLL37

↑ Back to Contents

Aberdeen vs Falkirk

Wednesday 28 October | 19:45 GMT | Pittodrie Stadium

Aberdeen's home record stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats, with five goals scored and four conceded. It is a modest return for a side priced around 2.00 to beat opponents who have lost only once in five away league matches.

Falkirk arrive after wins over Hibs and Kilmarnock. Their away record is one win, three draws and one defeat, with a 5-5 goal balance. That is a better argument for protecting the draw than for pretending John McGlynn's side have become a travelling steamroller.

The tactical contest should turn on the space Aberdeen leave while trying to impose themselves. Stephen Robinson's side average 50% possession at home, while Falkirk average 42% away. My expectation is that Aberdeen have longer spells on the ball and Falkirk look for direct progress into Murrell, with Ethan Ross supporting and Strain supplying deliveries. These are projected approaches rather than confirmed Wednesday formations.

Strain's service against Kilmarnock repeatedly created trouble from dead balls. Aberdeen must stop him delivering cleanly and defend the second contact. At the other end, Nisbet's four goals and three assists make him the obvious focal point, although 4.80 xG suggests his finishing return has not fully matched the chances.

A squad virus affected Aberdeen before the trip to Dundee United. Recovery matters as much as availability on a team sheet. Their cup semi-final against Rangers follows on Saturday, creating an additional selection consideration.

The historical warning is relevant: Falkirk were unbeaten in the three league meetings last season, winning twice and drawing 1-1 at Pittodrie in March. Personnel have changed, so that is supporting context rather than a prediction engine.

Betting view: Falkirk double chance at a minimum 1.85 is my preferred position. Under 3.5 goals becomes interesting at 1.50 or better: Aberdeen's home games average 1.80 goals and Falkirk's away games 2.00. Those averages do not guarantee a quiet evening, but they make the indicative BTTS price of 1.65 look uninviting. Murrell anytime at the checked 3.20 is a small, lineup-dependent alternative; Nisbet was quoted at 2.40.

Prediction: Aberdeen 1-1 Falkirk.

↑ Back to Contents

Celtic vs Dundee United

Wednesday 28 October | 19:45 GMT | Celtic Park

Celtic have won three successive league games since losing the Old Firm derby, scoring 11 goals across those victories. United bring a five-match unbeaten run and have scored eight times in five away fixtures. The favourite should win; the visiting side has earned more respect than the price of 10.00 might initially suggest.

Celtic average 19.9 shots and 60% possession across the season. United average 15.7 shots, but their away possession falls to 48%. I expect Martin O'Neill's side to pin them back for sustained periods, with Nygren's passing and Duran's movement forcing decisions between the midfield and defensive lines.

United's route out is important. Randall can carry or receive on the right, and Zac Sapsford's winning header against Aberdeen demonstrated the value of reaching the box with properly supported attacks. Jim Goodwin's side should avoid turning every clearance into another Celtic attack. Whether that requires a deeper back line or extra midfield cover is a selection question, not an established Wednesday team sheet.

Alistair Johnston is a significant fitness concern after his return at Hibs lasted about 20 minutes. Celtic used Cameron Carter-Vickers and moved Dane Murray to right back after Johnston went off. That gives United a flank to examine if Celtic again have to improvise. United's Jack Walton and Michael Forbes continued after a collision on Saturday; their subsequent condition still warrants checking.

The last league meeting was United's 2-0 win at Tannadice in March. The most recent meeting at Celtic Park ended 4-0 to Celtic in January. Both results underline why venue matters more than a selectively chosen head-to-head headline.

Betting view: the checked home price of 1.28 requires roughly a 78% win rate before allowing for uncertainty. Celtic remain the strongest outright result selection, but I would not build the whole evening around that return. United's away games have gone over 2.5 in four of five, yet over 2.5 at an indicative 1.33 already charges heavily for that expectation. SportyTrader showed BTTS at 1.72; I would require 1.80 before considering it.

Celtic over 6.5 team corners is a watchlist angle at 1.80 or better, supported by their 8.80 home average. That is a target price, not a verified available quote. A Celtic -1.5 Asian handicap would need at least 1.95 and a strong starting attack before I considered it.

Prediction: Celtic 3-1 Dundee United.

↑ Back to Contents

Dundee vs Kilmarnock

Wednesday 28 October | 19:45 GMT | Dens Park

Dundee's defeat in Paisley interrupted a productive run, rather than erasing it. Before Saturday they had beaten Motherwell and Falkirk and held Rangers 2-2. Kilmarnock's 3-0 defeat at Falkirk exposed familiar problems: they have conceded a league-high 23 goals and allowed 18.2 shots per match.

Steven Pressley used a 4-4-2 against St Mirren, with Bradley Fink alongside Ashley Hay. That pairing offers a clear division of labour: compete for the first ball, then attack the space around it. Fink scored his fourth goal in five league games on Saturday and his overall four-goal return is supported by 3.66 xG.

Neil McCann's side must protect the space around their centre backs and deal with repeated wide deliveries. Simply sitting deep is unlikely to solve everything when the opposition can put two forwards into the box. Greg Kiltie's three goals give Killie a route back into the contest, particularly if Dundee leave the midfield stretched.

There is a reason to resist excessive confidence in the home defence. Dundee have conceded 12 goals against approximately 19.7 xGA (expected goals against) and face 18.1 shots per game. That is a sizeable gap between chances allowed and goals conceded. Their home matches have seen BTTS in four of five, while Killie's away record includes two clean sheets. The evidence points towards Dundee having the better chance, not a guaranteed home shutout.

Jack Moorhouse and Joe Westley were absent from Dundee's recent matchday squads after earlier injury problems; their Wednesday status needs a fresh check. Tyreece John-Jules played in Kilmarnock's latest match and should not be treated as a confirmed absentee.

The previous league meeting, at Rugby Park in May, finished Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee. It is a reminder that the away side can hurt this opponent, although it belongs to a different season and venue.

Betting view: Dundee are the result lean at a checked 1.95, but the defensive numbers make draw no bet more comfortable if 1.60 becomes available. BTTS at an indicative 1.53 is too short for my taste; I would want 1.75. Over 2.5 at 1.57 similarly offers little room for the game to take a less obliging route.

Prediction: Dundee 2-1 Kilmarnock.

↑ Back to Contents

St Johnstone vs Motherwell

Wednesday 28 October | 19:45 GMT | McDiarmid Park

This is my preferred goals fixture once price enters the discussion. Neither club has kept a clean sheet in the relevant venue split: St Johnstone in five home games, Motherwell in five away. Both have seen BTTS in four of those five matches.

Saints have scored eight and conceded seven at home. Motherwell have scored eight and conceded ten away. Their struggles at Fir Park should not obscure that more open away pattern. Four of Motherwell's five away matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Simo Valakari's side need to create useful service for Fowler, whose six goals account for more than half their league total. Their average of 9.9 shots per game is the division's lowest, so preventing Motherwell from controlling where the match is played matters. Alfred Johansson's visitors average 56% possession and 14.3 shots. Possession has survived their losing run; the defensive consequences of losing it have been considerably less reassuring.

The tactical question is whether Motherwell can advance their full backs while keeping enough cover behind the ball. Fowler can punish that space, while Saints' failure to keep a home clean sheet leaves opportunities at the other end. Motherwell's 15.7 season xG against 11 actual goals offers a case for some attacking improvement, but an underperforming attack does not have a contractual right to score next time.

Kai Fotheringham was sent off at Ibrox and faces suspension, subject to any successful appeal. Sam Stanton missed that game after an injury in training. Motherwell were without Lukas Fadinger through illness against Hearts, with Alex Lowry also absent; Regan Charles-Cook returned to the squad. Those are latest-match statuses, with Wednesday availability still to be confirmed.

The last league meeting, in April 2025, ended Motherwell 3-2 St Johnstone. Saints won the preceding home league meeting 2-1. Those older results support the possibility of goals but deserve less weight than this season's venue records.

Betting view: over 2.5 at an indicative 1.80 is the best goals candidate on the card, provided that price is available and the attacking selections are sensible. It needs a 55.6% success rate to break even. The venue records support taking that price seriously, without turning a ten-game combined sample into certainty. BTTS at 1.62 has a stronger raw hit-rate argument but less price margin; I would require 1.70. Fowler anytime was checked at 2.90 and is an alternative if he starts, rather than an automatic extra leg.

Prediction: St Johnstone 2-1 Motherwell.

↑ Back to Contents

St Mirren vs Hibernian

Wednesday 28 October | 19:45 GMT | Marbill Coaches Stadium

The league table says sixth against twelfth. The checked market makes Hibs approximately 2.08 favourites and St Mirren 3.30. That deserves examination rather than an immediate claim that the bookmaker has misplaced the table.

Hibs have an underlying attacking case: 17.0 xG against ten actual goals, plus 16.2 shots per match. Their away record is two wins and two defeats, much better than their miserable home return. This helps explain why the market has not priced them as an ordinary bottom club.

However, they have no clean sheets in ten league games and Reedijk's first three competitive matches have all ended in defeat. St Mirren's win over Dundee stopped a run of five league losses and gave Craig McLeish a result to work from. It did not repair every flaw in a defence that has conceded 18 times.

Saints used a back three against Dundee, with Calvin Ramsay and Declan John providing width and Eseosa Sule leading the attack. The wing backs give them a route around a narrow midfield. Sule scored and assisted against Dundee, while Killian Phillips has three league goals and two assists.

I expect Saints to test Hibs' handling of crosses and second balls, with Phillips arriving from midfield. Hibs' best response is to play through the pressure and release runners early. Owen Elding has scored in successive league games, against Falkirk and Celtic, making him an immediate attacking threat.

Paul Nsio missed Saturday through a virus. Hibs' final selection and any late returns remain important after Sunday's match. Late fitness decisions could change both starting lineups.

Hibs won the previous league meeting 2-0 in February and the last visit to Paisley 3-0 in November 2025. Those results temper enthusiasm for a home win, even though the managerial and squad context has changed.

Betting view: St Mirren or draw at 1.75 or better is preferable to trusting either defence. Betmaster listed 1.79, although availability must be confirmed with the operator. The indicative BTTS price of 1.57 requires 63.7%; that may land, but I would rather wait for 1.70. The outright home win at 3.30 is a higher-risk expression of the same opinion, not a second independent selection.

Prediction: St Mirren 2-1 Hibernian.

↑ Back to Contents

Hearts vs Rangers

Wednesday 28 October | 20:00 GMT | Tynecastle Park

This is the evening's best contest and its most awkward team-news problem. Hearts have won all four home league games, scoring 13 and conceding two. Rangers are unbeaten in five away league games, with three wins, two draws and a 7-4 goal balance.

Hearts' home xG figures are impressive: 2.01 created and 0.88 conceded per match. Rangers' away figures are 2.04 and 1.11. Those profiles argue for a more competitive game than a casual reading of Hearts' 7-1 loss at Celtic might imply. That defeat happened away from Tynecastle and accounts for nearly half their season's goals conceded.

Wouter Vrancken's side responded with a 2-0 win at Motherwell after Thursday's trip to Trabzonspor. Braga scored the opener and Miller came off the bench to secure the points. Josh McPake's five assists and 3.96 xA make his service a major part of the home threat.

Rangers restored Kevin Kelsy alongside Naderi against St Johnstone and won 4-0. Dan Neil and Nico Raskin played centrally, with Badredine Bouanani and Minsu Kim providing width. That structure gives Hearts a choice: protect the middle against two forwards or move extra help towards the flanks. With personnel missing, repeated switches of play could make that decision expensive.

The key duel is between Rangers' central attackers and Hearts' depleted defensive unit. Kelsy's two goals on Saturday make him difficult to leave out; Naderi has five league goals from 4.82 xG. At the other end, Rangers must stop McPake delivering to Braga rather than assuming home attacking quality disappeared with the injury list.

Hearts' reported absentees include Ageu, Tom Renaud, Craig Halkett, Harry Milne, Blair Spittal, Oisin McEntee and Christian Borchgrevink. Stuart Findlay has a possible chance of returning; Ageu has no clear comeback date. Rangers also reported illness before Saturday, making an updated squad check worthwhile. The rest balance favours the visitors after Hearts played on Thursday and Sunday.

Hearts won the last league meeting at Tynecastle 2-1 in May. This is also Derek McInnes' first return there as Rangers manager, adding atmosphere without adding a measurable goal to either side.

Betting view: Rangers at a checked 2.15 are understandable favourites, but I would not treat them as an accumulator banker. Hearts +0.5, equivalent to Hearts or draw, appeals at 1.80 or better only if the late team news stabilises. Every Hearts home game has gone over 2.5, but Rangers' away rate is only two of five. That conflict makes an indicative over 2.5 price of 1.61 unattractive. My result forecast is a draw, with the betting decision deferred until the defence is known.

Prediction: Hearts 1-1 Rangers.

↑ Back to Contents

The price sheet

Price integrity: match-result prices are from Oddschecker, checked on 26 October and shown in decimal format. They are best prices across operators, so one bookmaker may not offer the entire row. Goals and BTTS prices are indicative; their bookmaker and quote time have not been independently verified. Recheck them before betting.

Match result prices (decimal)
MatchHomeDrawAway
Aberdeen vs Falkirk2.003.603.60
Celtic vs Dundee United1.286.2510.00
Dundee vs Kilmarnock1.953.853.70
St Johnstone vs Motherwell2.553.602.70
St Mirren vs Hibernian3.303.752.08
Hearts vs Rangers3.253.752.15
Goals and BTTS prices (decimal, indicative)
MatchO1.5O2.5O3.5O4.5BTTS YesBTTS No
Aberdeen vs Falkirk1.211.803.106.001.652.10
Celtic vs Dundee United1.061.331.812.661.612.25
Dundee vs Kilmarnock1.131.572.334.101.532.40
St Johnstone vs Motherwell1.241.802.925.501.622.15
St Mirren vs Hibernian1.151.612.464.401.572.30
Hearts vs Rangers1.181.612.374.601.572.30

The actionable distinction is between a quoted price and a price I would require. Minimum prices below are editorial thresholds based on the evidence and uncertainty; they are not outputs from a calibrated probability model. Historical hit rates are descriptions, not direct estimates of the next match's probability.

↑ Back to Contents

Corners, cards and handicaps

The league averages 11.38 corners and 3.82 cards per match. That makes these markets worth inspecting, although the line and referee can easily matter more than the headline average.

Markets to inspect, with minimum prices (decimal)
Market to inspectMinimum priceEvidence and condition
Celtic over 6.5 team corners1.808.80 corners per home match; confirm attacking starters
Aberdeen vs Falkirk over 3.5 cards1.85Aberdeen average 3.00 cards at home; Falkirk 2.20 away; wait for referee and selections
Dundee draw no bet1.60Better recent results; draw cover accounts for defensive vulnerability
Hearts +0.5 Asian handicap1.80Four home wins; proceed only after defensive team news
Celtic -1.5 Asian handicap1.95Strongest favourite; visitors' form demands a price margin

These are target prices. Hearts +0.5 wins with a home win or draw; Celtic -1.5 needs a win by at least two goals. European three-way handicaps retain a handicap draw and settle differently.

Dujon Sterling and Dylan Tait each have four league bookings; Lewis Mayo and Ryan Carr have five. Those counts flag disciplinary exposure, but they do not establish a suspension for Wednesday. Competition rules, dates and any disciplinary decisions still govern eligibility. Fotheringham's fresh dismissal is a separate, concrete availability issue.

Falkirk's delivery at set pieces merits attention. First and last scorer, correct-score, European-handicap and player-special prices need a fresh bookmaker check. The score forecasts are predictions rather than quoted bets.

↑ Back to Contents

Outright markets

For dated context, talkSPORT's odds roundup on 23 October quoted Celtic at 1.57, Rangers at 3.00 and Hearts at 31.00. It also quoted Kasper Hogh at 4.00 and Nygren at 6.00 for top scorer. Those are historical prices, not confirmed 26 October offers.

Celtic's four-point lead gives the title favourite room, while Rangers' lack of European fixtures may help their recovery schedule. Hearts' injury list is a reason to be cautious about speculative title prices. In the scorer race, Duran's six league goals and 6.39 xG strengthen his case, but minutes and rotation matter over a full season.

At the bottom, Hibs' underlying chance creation offers more hope than their results; Kilmarnock's 23 conceded looks the more immediate defensive concern. A verified current relegation or finish-bottom price is required before making an outright recommendation. Those two markets also need their settlement terms checked, given the relegation play-off position.

↑ Back to Contents

The selections I would carry into Wednesday

Score forecasts, preferred approaches and price conditions (decimal)
MatchScore forecastPreferred approachPrice condition
Aberdeen vs Falkirk1-1Falkirk or draw1.85 or better
Celtic vs Dundee United3-1Celtic result lean; corners watchlistTeam corners O6.5 at 1.80 or better
Dundee vs Kilmarnock2-1Dundee draw no bet1.60 or better
St Johnstone vs Motherwell2-1Over 2.5 goals1.80 or better; indicative price
St Mirren vs Hibernian2-1St Mirren or draw1.75 or better; 1.79 listing checked
Hearts vs Rangers1-1Hearts +0.5 after team news1.80 or better

Celtic are the highest-confidence outright winner, with a short price to match. Falkirk are the principal upset alert; St Mirren are the home underdog worth examining. St Johnstone-Motherwell is the preferred goals game at the indicative price, while Aberdeen-Falkirk offers the strongest case for a lower-scoring contest.

For a small two-leg value combination, Falkirk or draw at 1.85 and St Mirren or draw at 1.75 would return approximately 3.24 combined. Both prices must actually be available; these are minimum-price conditions, not a quoted accumulator.

A goals double could pair St Johnstone-Motherwell over 2.5 at 1.80 with Aberdeen-Falkirk under 3.5 at 1.50, giving 2.70 if both conditions are met. A BTTS double using St Johnstone-Motherwell and St Mirren-Hibs would need 1.70 on each leg, or 2.89 combined. The indicative BTTS prices do not meet those thresholds, so that version is a wait rather than an instruction to bet immediately.

If you want a result double for entertainment, Celtic and Dundee multiply to roughly 2.50 at the checked 1.28 and 1.95. I prefer the singles because Dundee's defensive figures leave room for trouble. There is no need to add four more fixtures simply because the fixture list has been considerate enough to provide them.

↑ Back to Contents

Gamble responsibly. 18+ only. Odds change and no selection is guaranteed. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware.org or call GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Post a Comment

Previous Post Next Post

Contact Form