December 9-10, 2025 | Complete Betting Analysis & Match Previews as Seven Knockout Spots Remain Up for Grabs with One Matchday Left
The new-look UEFA Women's Champions League league phase approaches its business end with Round 5 upon us. After four matchdays of drama, upsets, and statement victories, the table is beginning to take shape—but with seven of twelve knockout places still up for grabs, these penultimate fixtures carry enormous weight.
Barcelona and Lyon have been imperious. PSG have been catastrophic. Manchester United are somehow fourth. And the defending champions Arsenal find themselves scrapping in 10th place with just 6 points. Welcome to the chaos of the Swiss system format.
Current Standings Analysis
The Table After Four Rounds
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 10 |
| 2 | OL Lyonnes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 6 |
| 10 | Arsenal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | OH Leuven | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Vålerenga | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Twente | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Benfica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 1 |
| 17 | St. Pölten | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 1 |
| 18 | PSG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
Key Storylines
The Untouchables (1-2): Barcelona's +13 goal difference is frankly absurd. They've conceded twice in four games—against Bayern in that wild 7-1 opener and Chelsea's draw. Lyon, under Jonatan Giráldez (poached from that very Barcelona side), have rebounded from losing to Arsenal on matchday 1 to reel off three wins and a draw.
The Unlikely Heroes (3-5): Manchester United at fourth with nine points wasn't on many prediction slips. Marc Skinner's side have punched above their weight, though that 5-2 dismantling at Wolfsburg was a reality check. Bayern's negative goal difference despite nine points tells the story of their chaotic campaign—conceding 7 to Barcelona, then somehow beating Arsenal 3-2.
The Underperformers (10, 18): Arsenal defending their title from 10th place is the competition's great mystery. Losing to Lyon, then Bayern, has left them fighting for knockout phase play-off spots rather than automatic quarter-final berths. PSG at rock bottom with zero points is the tournament's biggest shock—four defeats, including a 4-0 hammering from Wolfsburg and losses to Real Madrid, Manchester United, and Bayern.
Top Scorer Race
The Golden Boot Contenders
The scoring race is beautifully congested. After four rounds, we have an extraordinary ten players tied on four goals:
| Player | Team | Goals | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lineth Beerensteyn | Wolfsburg | 4 | Two vs Man United on MD4 |
| Alessia Russo | Arsenal | 4 | Joint-top with 10 in last 11 UWCL games |
| Caroline Weir | Real Madrid | 4 | Stunning volley vs former club Man City |
| Esmee Brugts | Barcelona | 4 | Filling the creative void brilliantly |
| Ada Hegerberg | OL Lyonnes | 4 | All-time UWCL leader (69 career goals) |
| Beth Mead | Arsenal | 4 | Vital to Arsenal's counter-press |
| Ella Peddemors | Wolfsburg | 4 | Germany's emerging talent |
| Alba Redondo | Real Madrid | 4 | Clinical finishing presence |
| Amaiur Sarriegi | Atlético Madrid | 4 | Six-goal salvo vs St. Pölten included |
Players to Watch This Round
Ewa Pajor (Barcelona) — With Aitana Bonmatí out for five months following surgery on her fractured fibula, Pajor's finishing becomes even more critical against Benfica.
Melchie Dumornay (OL Lyonnes) — The Haitian sensation was devastating in the comeback draw against Juventus on MD4. Faces a struggling Man United defence.
Sam Kerr (Chelsea) — Having recovered from her ACL injury, the Australian's return to form against Roma could be pivotal to Chelsea's top-four push.
Match-by-Match Previews
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2025
St. Pölten vs Juventus
18:45 CET | NV Arena, St. Pölten
The Stakes: Juventus need points to solidify their position in the top eight; St. Pölten need a miracle to escape the basement. The Austrians have conceded 17 goals in four matches—including six to Atlético Madrid on the opening night.
St. Pölten Form:
L-L-L-D (1 pt, -15 GD)
Juventus Form:
W-W-W-D (7 pts, +1 GD)
Team News
St. Pölten's challenge has been less about personnel and more about the gulf in class they've encountered. Juventus arrive after that dramatic 3-3 draw with Lyon, having twice come from behind through Cristiana Girelli's brace. Manager Massimiliano Canzi will rotate cautiously.
Head-to-Head
First competitive meeting.
Key Battle
Girelli vs St. Pölten's backline. The veteran Italian has six UWCL goals this campaign across qualifying and the league phase.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
St. Pölten 0-4 Juventus
Paris Saint-Germain vs OH Leuven
21:00 CET | Parc des Princes, Paris
The Stakes: PSG's tournament is effectively over—zero points means even a win here merely prolongs the agony. OH Leuven, debutants in this competition, sit 11th with five points and a genuine shot at the knockout play-offs.
PSG Form:
L-L-L-L (0 pts, -8 GD)
OH Leuven Form:
D-W-L-D (5 pts, -2 GD)
Team News
The pressure on PSG boss Fabrice Abriel is immense. The club's transfer outlay and ambitions simply don't match four defeats from four. Marie-Antoinette Katoto's form has been concerning—no goals in four UWCL matches. OH Leuven's Belgian contingent, including Hannah Eurlings, have impressed throughout.
Head-to-Head
First competitive meeting.
Key Battle
Katoto's redemption vs Leuven's compact defensive unit. PSG desperately need their star striker to rediscover her touch.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
PSG 2-1 OH Leuven
Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg
21:00 CET | Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano, Madrid
The Stakes: This is the marquee fixture of the round. Real Madrid (7th, 7 pts) hosting Wolfsburg (3rd, 9 pts) has direct implications for the top four race. A win for either side fundamentally shifts the automatic quarter-final picture.
Real Madrid Form:
W-W-D-D (7 pts, +4 GD)
Wolfsburg Form:
W-W-L-W (9 pts, +6 GD)
Team News
Real Madrid are largely fit, with Caroline Weir and Alba Redondo—both on four goals—leading the line. Wolfsburg's German powerhouse includes Lineth Beerensteyn and Ella Peddemors (also four goals each), plus the experienced Alexandra Popp. Wolfsburg's sole defeat came at Lyon (3-1).
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings favor the German side. Wolfsburg eliminated Real Madrid in 2021-22 quarter-finals (3-2 aggregate).
Key Battle
Weir vs Kathrin Hendrich. The Scottish playmaker's ability to drift between the lines will test Wolfsburg's defensive discipline.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Real Madrid 2-2 Wolfsburg
Arsenal vs FC Twente
21:00 CET | Meadow Park, London
The Stakes: Arsenal's title defence has been underwhelming, but three points here against winless Twente should be routine. The Gunners need maximum points to stay in contention for automatic qualification.
Arsenal Form:
L-W-L-W (6 pts, +1 GD)
FC Twente Form:
D-L-D-D (2 pts, -5 GD)
Team News
Alessia Russo (four goals, including a brace vs Real Madrid on MD4) leads the line for Jonas Eidevall's side. Beth Mead remains key on the flank. Concerns persist about depth, with Michelle Agyemang ruled out for the season with an ACL injury. Twente's lone point against top opposition was their impressive 1-1 draw with Chelsea on matchday 1.
Head-to-Head
First UWCL meeting. Twente have never beaten English opposition in Europe.
Key Battle
Russo vs Twente's central defence. The England striker has six goals in her last five UWCL home games.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Arsenal 3-0 FC Twente
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2025
Barcelona vs Benfica
18:45 CET | Estadi Johan Cruyff, Barcelona
The Stakes: Barcelona are cruising, but this could be their first match without Aitana Bonmatí since her fibula surgery. The three-time Ballon d'Or winner's absence for five months is seismic. Benfica need a miracle—one point from four means they're staring at elimination.
Barcelona Form:
W-W-W-D (10 pts, +13 GD)
Benfica Form:
L-L-L-D (1 pt, -5 GD)
Team News
Barcelona's injury list is brutal. Beyond Bonmatí, Kika Nazareth (ankle), Salma Paralluelo, and Patri Guijarro are all sidelined. Pere Romeu's squad depth is being tested. However, Ewa Pajor, Alexia Putellas, and Claudia Pina provide enough firepower. Benfica's Cristina Martín-Prieto has five career UWCL goals but faces Barcelona's league-best defence.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona hammered Benfica 9-0 in 2022-23. The Portuguese have never scored against the Blaugrana.
Key Battle
Pajor vs Benfica's high line. The Polish striker's movement could be devastating without Bonmatí pulling strings.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Barcelona 5-0 Benfica
Vålerenga vs Paris FC
18:45 CET | Intility Arena, Oslo
The Stakes: A genuine six-pointer for knockout phase survival. Vålerenga (13th, 4 pts) and Paris FC (12th, 5 pts) both need wins to secure their spot in the top 12. This is the definition of a must-win.
Vålerenga Form:
W-L-L-D (4 pts, -1 GD)
Paris FC Form:
D-L-W-W (5 pts, -2 GD)
Team News
Vålerenga let a two-goal lead slip against St. Pölten on MD4—a result that could haunt them. They're winless in five home UWCL matches across the last two seasons. Paris FC have momentum after beating Benfica 2-0 and drawing at Real Madrid. Gaëtane Thiney remains their creative heartbeat despite being 39 years old.
Head-to-Head
First competitive meeting.
Key Battle
Vålerenga's attacking transition vs Paris FC's experienced backline.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Vålerenga 1-2 Paris FC
Chelsea vs Roma
21:00 CET | Kingsmeadow, London
The Stakes: Chelsea are unbeaten but somehow sit 6th—their two draws (vs Twente and Barcelona) have cost them. Roma need points desperately after just one draw from four matches.
Chelsea Form:
D-W-W-D (8 pts, +10 GD)
Roma Form:
L-L-L-D (1 pt, -9 GD)
Team News
Sonia Bompastor's Chelsea are loaded: Sam Kerr, Catarina Macario, Lauren James, Keira Walsh—the talent is obscene. Ellie Carpenter has been exceptional at right-back since her summer move from Lyon. Roma's sole point came in their draw at OH Leuven. Alessandro Spugna needs his side to find scoring form—they've netted just three times.
Head-to-Head
First competitive meeting in UWCL. Chelsea haven't lost to Italian opposition in Europe since 2020.
Key Battle
Kerr vs Roma's central defence. The Australian's return from ACL injury has been gradual but purposeful.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Chelsea 4-0 Roma
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich
21:00 CET | Centro Deportivo Wanda, Madrid
The Stakes: Both teams are on nine and nine points respectively, fighting for automatic quarter-final slots. Atlético's 6-0 demolition of St. Pölten on matchday 1 remains the competition's biggest win; Bayern's 7-1 loss to Barcelona remains its biggest humiliation.
Atlético Madrid Form:
W-L-W-L (6 pts, +8 GD)
Bayern Munich Form:
L-W-W-W (9 pts, -2 GD)
Team News
Atlético's inconsistency is maddening—they hammered St. Pölten and Juventus but lost to Manchester United and Twente. Amaiur Sarriegi (four goals) has been clinical. Bayern arrive having won three straight following that Barcelona nightmare. Georgia Stanway and Glòria Caño provide midfield solidity.
Head-to-Head
Limited recent history. Bayern eliminated Atlético 6-0 on aggregate in 2018-19 quarter-finals.
Key Battle
Sarriegi vs Bayern's high line. Atlético's counter-attacking threat could be decisive.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Atlético Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich
Manchester United vs OL Lyonnes
21:00 CET | Leigh Sports Village, Manchester
The Stakes: The clash of the round. Manchester United (4th, 9 pts) vs OL Lyonnes (2nd, 10 pts) will define both clubs' top-four aspirations. United's home form has been excellent; Lyon haven't lost since matchday 1.
Manchester United Form:
W-W-W-L (9 pts, 0 GD)
OL Lyonnes Form:
L-W-W-W (10 pts, +6 GD)
Team News
Marc Skinner's United feature former Lyon player Melvine Malard—30 goals in 93 appearances for OL before her 2023 switch. She scored against Wolfsburg and PSG this season. Lyon's attack is frightening: Ada Hegerberg (69 career UWCL goals, four this season), Melchie Dumornay, Lindsey Horan, Kadidiatou Diani. Manager Jonatan Giráldez knows exactly how to prepare for big occasions.
Head-to-Head
Lyon dominated the 2024-25 quarter-final 4-1 on aggregate.
Key Battle
Malard vs her former teammates. The psychological element adds intrigue.
Betting Analysis
Prediction
Manchester United 1-3 OL Lyonnes
Accumulator Suggestions
The Banker Treble (Low Risk)
- Arsenal to beat FC Twente 1.22
- Barcelona to beat Benfica 1.08
- Chelsea to beat Roma 1.18
The Goals Acca (Medium Risk)
- Arsenal vs Twente Over 2.5 1.50
- Barcelona vs Benfica Over 3.5 1.55
- Man United vs Lyon Over 2.5 1.55
- Chelsea vs Roma Over 2.5 1.45
The Value Longshot (High Risk)
- Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg Draw 4.00
- Paris FC to beat Vålerenga 2.40
- Lyon to beat Man United 1.85
Final Thoughts
Round 5 arrives with the table beautifully poised. Barcelona and Lyon are cruising toward automatic quarter-final berths, but positions 3-12 remain genuinely competitive. Chelsea's unbeaten run needs points to matter. Arsenal's title defence is effectively over as a statement—now it's about salvaging qualification.
The fixtures to watch: Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg has top-four implications in every challenge. Manchester United vs OL Lyonnes will reveal whether Marc Skinner's side are genuine contenders or merely punching above their weight.
PSG's zero-point campaign remains the tournament's great talking point. A club of their resources, ambitions, and wage bill sitting bottom of an 18-team table is extraordinary.
One matchday remains after this. Buckle up.
Disclaimer: All betting recommendations are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly. Odds quoted are indicative and subject to change.
Last Updated: December 7, 2025