Ben Johnson's Resurgent Bears (9-3) Challenge Jordan Love's Packers (8-3-1) in Sub-Zero Conditions as NFC North Supremacy Hangs in the Balance — Complete Betting Analysis & Expert Predictions
Look, I'm not going to pretend this isn't personal. The NFL's oldest rivalry rarely needs additional seasoning, but when both teams are jockeying for first place in the NFC North in early December? When one coach publicly admitted he "enjoyed beating" the other twice a year during his introduction press conference? When the Bears walk into Lambeau as the conference's top seed for the first time since anyone can remember? This is appointment television disguised as a football game.
The Chicago Bears (9-3) arrive riding a five-game winning streak and fresh off dismantling the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles 24-15 on Black Friday. The Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) countered with a Thanksgiving Day statement, carving up Detroit 31-24 in the Lions' own building. First place is on the line. Pride is on the line. And Ben Johnson versus Matt LaFleur feels like round one of a heavyweight fight that'll define the division for years to come.
The NFL's oldest rivalry takes center stage as the Bears and Packers battle for NFC North supremacy
Team News & Form: Polar Opposite Trajectories Converging
Chicago Bears — The Resurrection
Ben Johnson has orchestrated the most improbable first-year turnaround in recent memory. After opening 0-2 with losses to Minnesota and Detroit, Chicago has rattled off nine wins in ten games. The five-game winning streak includes scalps from Pittsburgh (31-28) and Philadelphia (24-15) — two postseason contenders who couldn't solve Johnson's ground-and-pound scheme.
The victory over Philadelphia was a masterpiece: 281 rushing yards, with both Kyle Monangai (130 yards) and D'Andre Swift (125 yards) cracking the century mark. It was the first time the Bears produced two 100-yard rushers since Walter Payton and Matt Suhey did it against Detroit on November 10, 1985. That's not hyperbole. That's a 40-year statistical drought ending.
Bears Last 5 Games: W vs. Vikings, W vs. Jaguars, W vs. Steelers, W vs. Panthers, W vs. Eagles
Point Differential: +47
The Bears have surged to a 9-3 record behind their dominant rushing attack
Green Bay Packers — The Quiet Assassins
While everyone obsessed over Detroit's Super Bowl aspirations, the Packers quietly assembled their own résumé. After back-to-back losses to Carolina and Philadelphia in Weeks 9-10, Green Bay has won three straight — including a comprehensive 23-6 home demolition of Minnesota and that Thanksgiving dismantling of the Lions.
Jordan Love threw four touchdowns against Detroit, looking every bit the franchise quarterback the organization bet he'd become. The defense continues to suffocate opponents (18.8 points allowed per game, sixth-best in the NFL), and the running game has found its legs behind Josh Jacobs.
Packers Last 5 Games: L vs. Panthers, L vs. Eagles, W vs. Vikings, W vs. Lions
Point Differential: +41
Jordan Love has been elite from clean pockets, leading the NFL in EPA/play
⚠️ Weather Advisory: Frozen Tundra Lives Up to Its Name
Bundle up, friends. Sunday's kickoff temperature will hover around 15°F with wind chills approaching zero. Morning snow showers should clear by game time, but conditions will deteriorate as the contest progresses — the low could plummet to 4°F below zero by evening. This is December football at Lambeau Field. There are no dome teams here.
Historically, extreme cold benefits the home team, though both franchises are accustomed to hostile winter conditions. The weather favors run-heavy approaches and ball security — which plays directly into Chicago's wheelhouse.
Tactical Preview: Scheme Collision Course
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense
Chicago's offense ranks sixth in total yardage (374.3 per game) and eighth in scoring (26.1 points). But the story is the ground game. The Bears' 153.8 rushing yards per game ranks second in the NFL behind only Buffalo, and their rush success rate leads the league under Johnson's inventive play-calling.
The matchup against Green Bay's eighth-ranked rushing defense (98.3 yards allowed) represents Chicago's stiffest test yet. The Packers held Jonathan Taylor to 90 yards, Alvin Kamara to 68, and limited opponents to 4.2 yards per carry over their three-game winning streak.
Caleb Williams has progressed significantly in Year 2 — 2,722 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, five interceptions — but his 58.1% completion rate ranks 40th among qualified quarterbacks. The Bears win when they don't need Williams to be the hero. Johnson understands this.
Key Matchup: Bears' league-leading offensive line (first in pass block win rate) vs. Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary. If Chicago can neutralize the edge rush and establish the ground game, Williams will have clean pockets for play-action strikes.
Caleb Williams has matured in Year 2 but thrives when the Bears can run effectively
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense
Jordan Love has been electric from clean pockets — arguably the NFL's best quarterback in that situation this season. He's thrown 19 touchdowns against just three interceptions and hasn't been picked off in four consecutive games. His EPA/play leads the league, and the Thanksgiving performance against Detroit's secondary (234 yards, 4 TDs) showed he's playing with supreme confidence.
The potential return of Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) from injured reserve would supercharge an already dangerous aerial attack. Reed's YAC ability and slot quickness forces defensive coordinators into impossible choices when paired with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Chicago's defense lives and dies by turnovers. Their +17 turnover differential leads the NFL by a wide margin. They've forced 26 turnovers, including 17 interceptions — Kevin Byard leads the league in picks. The Bears are 8-0 when generating two or more takeaways and have just one total turnover in their three losses.
Key Matchup: Love's discipline against Byard's ball-hawking instincts. If Love forces throws into tight coverage, Chicago's opportunistic secondary will make him pay.
Lambeau Field in December presents one of the most challenging environments in the NFL
Probable Starting Lineups
Bears Offense
QB: Caleb Williams | RB: D'Andre Swift/Kyle Monangai | WR: DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III | TE: Cole Kmet
OL: Ozzy Trapilo (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), Drew Dalman (C), Jonah Jackson (RG), Darnell Wright (RT)
Packers Offense
QB: Jordan Love | RB: Josh Jacobs | WR: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed (if activated) | TE: Tucker Kraft
OL: Rasheed Walker (LT), Elgton Jenkins (LG), Sean Rhyan (C), Anthony Belton (RG), Zach Tom (RT)
Bears Defense
DL: Montez Sweat, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, DeMarcus Walker
LB: Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards (questionable)
DB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker
Packers Defense
DL: Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt (OUT - IR), Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark
LB: Quay Walker, Edgerrin Cooper, Isaiah McDuffie
DB: Xavier McKinney, Keisean Nixon, Evan Williams, Nate Hobbs
Statistical Deep Dive
Head-to-Head Trends
Green Bay has dominated this rivalry mercilessly — winning 11 consecutive games before Chicago's 24-22 road victory in the 2024 regular season finale. In the Matt LaFleur era (2019-present), the Packers are 11-1 straight up against the Bears. The all-time series sits at 108-96-6 in Green Bay's favor.
Against the spread, Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. However, Chicago covered both games in 2024, and this version of the Bears is fundamentally different from the teams LaFleur has dismantled.
Key Per-Game Metrics
| Category | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored | 26.1 (8th) | 24.8 (11th) |
| Points Allowed | 19.3 (10th) | 18.8 (6th) |
| Total Offense | 374.3 (6th) | 341.2 (15th) |
| Rush Offense | 153.8 (2nd) | 115.4 (11th) |
| Rush Defense | 128.4 (18th) | 98.3 (8th) |
| Turnover Differential | +17 (1st) | +8 (T-7th) |
Advanced Metrics
- Jordan Love EPA/Play: 1st in NFL
- Caleb Williams EPA/Play: 18th in NFL
- Bears Rush Success Rate: 1st in NFL
- Packers 3rd Down Defense: Top 5 in opponent passer rating
Betting Market Overview
Current Lines (as of December 5, 2025)
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Packers -6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | Packers -320 (1.31) / Bears +260 (3.60) |
| Total | 44.5 (Over -114 / Under -106) |
Line Movement Analysis
The spread opened at Packers -5.5 and has climbed to -6.5 on early money backing Green Bay below the key number of 6. The total opened at 45.5 and has ticked down to 44.5, reflecting concerns about frigid conditions and both teams' defensive capabilities.
Smart Bet Recommendations
Primary Play: Bears +6.5
The Bears are 8-4 ATS this season, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. Chicago covered both meetings in 2024 despite losing one outright. This spread feels inflated by historical dominance that no longer applies to Ben Johnson's rebuilt roster.
Chicago's offensive line — the NFL's best in pass block win rate — neutralizes Green Bay's edge rush advantage. The Bears' running game will control clock, limit Love's possessions, and keep this game tight. Chicago has won six games by five points or fewer during their nine-game hot streak. They know how to play close.
The Edge: Models project Green Bay winning by approximately 5.5 points. The extra cushion of +6.5 provides insurance in a rivalry game where emotions and December weather introduce volatility.
Secondary Play: Under 44.5
The numbers scream under. Green Bay is 5-0-1 to the under at home this season. The Packers have scored exactly 27 or fewer points in six of seven home games, combining for just 43 points across their last three at Lambeau.
Three of Chicago's last four games have finished under the total. Their defense has allowed 20 or fewer points three times during this stretch. Cold weather suppresses scoring. Both defenses excel at generating turnovers and disrupting rhythm.
The Bears will grind clock with their running game. Green Bay will methodically attack downfield. Neither team plays hurry-up. This is a 20-17 type of game masquerading as a 24-21 line.
Value Prop: Jordan Love Under 1.5 Interceptions
Love has thrown just three interceptions in 12 games — an elite 0.25 per game average. He's gone four straight contests without being picked off. Despite Chicago's league-leading 17 interceptions, Love's decision-making has been impeccable from clean pockets.
The Bears struggle to generate pressure (bottom-five in pressure rate), meaning Love will operate comfortably. He's not going to gift Kevin Byard an easy pick unless Chicago's coverage is truly exceptional.
Sharp betting markets offer value opportunities for informed bettors
Final Prediction
Green Bay wins but Chicago covers. This game follows the script we've seen from both teams all season: the Bears grind, control clock, and keep it close; the Packers create enough explosive plays to stay ahead but never pull away decisively.
Josh Jacobs grinds out 80+ yards on the frozen turf. Jordan Love connects on two touchdown strikes — likely to Tucker Kraft working the seams and Watson on a deep shot. Chicago's run game keeps them honest with 140+ combined yards from Swift and Monangai. Caleb Williams manages the game without needing to win it alone.
The Packers regain first place in the NFC North. The Bears prove they belong. And both teams circle their Week 16 rematch at Soldier Field knowing the division race will likely come down to that January collision.
Recommended Wagers Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears +6.5 | -110 (1.91) | 2 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 44.5 | -106 (1.94) | 1.5 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jordan Love Under 1.5 INTs | -182 (1.55) | 1 unit | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Sunday's clash will add another chapter to the NFL's most storied rivalry
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