Friday 23 May 2025 – kick-off 20:45 CEST / 19:45 BST, Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
The stakes
Napoli enter the final day on 79 points, one ahead of Inter Milan. Because the rivals could yet finish level, both matches have been moved forward to Friday evening to leave room for a play-off on Monday if required. Antonio Conte and Simone Inzaghi are both suspended, so their assistants will direct operations from the technical area.
Cagliari, safe in 14th, play only for pride but would relish spoiling the party in Naples.
Form and mood
Napoli are unbeaten in eleven league games, have collected eleven points from the last five, and posted four clean sheets in that span. In Naples they average 2.33 points and concede fewer than one expected goal per match.
Cagliari arrive with two wins and three defeats from their last five. Away from Sardinia they collect only 0.78 points per game and have failed to score in fourteen league outings this season.
Head-to-head
Since 2010 the sides have met 29 times in Serie A: Napoli have won 18, Cagliari just 2, with 9 draws. Those encounters average a shade over three goals, with both teams scoring just under half the time.
Team news
- Napoli hope to have Stanislav Lobotka and Alessandro Buongiorno fit enough for the bench; Juan Jesus is also available for cover.
- Cagliari regain target-man Leonardo Pavoletti from suspension, but Zito Luvumbo (thigh) and on-loan Gianluca Gaetano (knee) remain sidelined.
Conte is expected to keep his 3-4-2-1 with Romelu Lukaku leading the line, while Davide Nicola mirrors the shape but relies on a compact midfield to clog central lanes.
Tactical snapshot
Napoli like to overload the right: Giovanni Di Lorenzo’s under-lapping runs pull Cagliari’s wing-back inward, freeing Matteo Politano wide and Giacomo Raspadori between the lines. Expect an aggressive high press in the opening quarter-hour—Napoli lead Serie A for turnovers converted to shots at home.
Cagliari will defend in a 5-4-1 mid-block, springing long diagonals to Roberto Piccoli and turning to Pavoletti’s aerial strength once the game stretches. Napoli’s intensity—and the roar from the Curva B—traditionally rises after the hour, when 43 percent of their league goals have been scored.
Key numbers
- Napoli win 72 percent of their home fixtures and average more than six corners per match at the Maradona.
- Cagliari have managed just three away victories and concede roughly 1.7 goals per trip.
- The hosts have scored in ten straight home games and recorded eighteen league clean sheets overall.
Betting market temperature
- Napoli to win trades around 1.20 (-500).
- Under 3.5 goals sits between 1.55 and 1.65, reflecting expectations of Conte’s pragmatic approach.
- Both-teams-to-score “No” is a narrow favourite at about 1.65 following Napoli’s recent clean-sheet run.
- The corners line has nudged up to Over 8.5 at roughly 1.75, respecting Napoli’s high volume of crosses and shots.
- Romelu Lukaku anytime scorer is offered at around 1.80 after scoring and assisting twice in the reverse fixture.
Recommended plays (unit scale: ⭐⭐⭐ high confidence to ⭐ low)
- ⭐⭐⭐ Napoli win & Under 3.5 goals (≈ 1.83) – dominant home edge plus Conte’s cautious game-state management.
- ⭐⭐ Napoli clean sheet (≈ 1.85) – Cagliari’s anaemic away attack against Serie A’s second-stingiest home defence.
- ⭐⭐ Over 8.5 corners (1.75) – sustained Napoli pressure and frequent wide deliveries.
- ⭐ Romelu Lukaku anytime scorer (1.80) – on penalties and averaging 0.62 xG per 90 at home.
- ⭐ Napoli −1.5 Asian Handicap (1.95) – if the hosts strike first, space opens for a clinching second goal.
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Verdict
Cagliari’s organised but goal-shy approach should keep the score respectable, yet Napoli’s depth and late-game firepower ought to deliver the Scudetto. Expect a cagey first hour, rising noise levels in Naples, and—barring a shock—southern Italy’s second straight title celebration.
Prediction: Napoli 2 – 0 Cagliari.