Serie A, Match-day 38 — Friday 23 May 2025, 20:45 CEST / 19:45 BST
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
1 | What’s at stake?
Inter travel to Lake Como one point behind leaders Napoli. They must win and hope Napoli drop points; otherwise their title defence ends on the final whistle. Matching Napoli’s result could still send the race to a one-off play-off on Monday.
For newly promoted Como, the season is already a fairy-tale. Sitting safely in mid-table, Cesc Fàbregas’s side carry an eight-match unbeaten run and three straight home wins. Spoiling Inter’s party would be the perfect coda to their comeback season.
2 | Current form
- Como are unbeaten in eight league fixtures, winning six and conceding just once in their last three at Sinigaglia.
- Inter have wobbled away from San Siro, collecting two wins from their last eight road matches after once rattling off eight in a row.
- Inter have, however, claimed victory in the last eight Serie A meetings with Como, including December’s 2-0 success in Milan.
3 | Team news and predicted elevens
Como are without suspended centre-back Edoardo Goldaniga. Long-term absentees Alberto Dossena, Sergi Roberto and standout teenager Assane Diao remain sidelined, and veteran goalkeeper Pepe Reina will make a farewell cameo before retirement.
Inter still monitor Benjamin Pavard and Piotr Zielinski, both nursing minor knocks. Lautaro Martínez and Davide Frattesi have returned to training but are expected to start on the bench. Simone Inzaghi is suspended, leaving assistant Massimiliano Farris in charge.
Projected Como (4-2-3-1): Butez; Vojvoda, Smolčić, Kempf, Valle; Da Cunha, Perrone; Paz, Caqueret, Strefezza; Douvikas.
Projected Inter (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Taremi.
4 | Tactical snapshot
Como’s disciplined 4-2-3-1 asks double pivots Perrone and Da Cunha to screen the back four. They look to break through Nico Paz’s dribbling or direct balls to powerful striker Tasos Douvikas.
Inter rely on their familiar 3-5-2. Expect a high early press, wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco providing width, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s set-piece service. Inter lead Serie A for goals from dead-ball situations, and Como will miss Goldaniga’s aerial presence.
If Como compress space and funnel Inter wide, the contest may hinge on how effectively the visitors recycle possession and overload the far post. Inter’s deeper bench could prove decisive in the last half-hour.
5 | Key numbers at a glance
- Inter generate about 2.1 expected goals per match while allowing just under 1.0.
- Como’s recent six-game home run shows a positive xG differential of roughly +0.65.
- Inter have scored in 35 of 37 league fixtures; Como have found the net in 11 of their last 12.
- The last eight head-to-head clashes produced an average of 2.9 goals.
6 | Betting insights and market pulse
Three-way odds on the eve of the match make Inter clear favourites at around 1.67 (-150 US), implying a 60 percent chance of victory. Como hover near 4.60 (+360), with the draw about 4.10 (+310).
Early money has trimmed Inter’s price from 1.75 after encouraging bulletin-board news on Lautaro Martínez. Total-goals traders lean low-scoring: Under 3.5 goals sits in the 1.60–1.65 corridor. Both-teams-to-score “Yes” is a marginal favourite near 1.85, reflecting Como’s recent scoring streak against Inter’s declining away clean-sheet rate.
The corners line has crept to Over 9.0 at roughly 1.90, acknowledging Inter’s wing-back crossing volume and Como’s willingness to cede set pieces under pressure.
7 | Recommended bets
(Confidence scale: ★★★ high to ★ low. One unit ≈ 1 percent of bankroll.)
- Inter to win and Under 3.5 goals at roughly 2.05 ★★★ — Inter’s need to win plus Como’s solid structure points to a controlled 1-0 or 2-1 away success.
- Inter −1 Asian Handicap (stake refunded on a one-goal victory) near 1.92 ★★ — Como may tire if chasing late; Inter’s deeper bench could stretch the gap.
- Both teams to score – Yes about 1.85 ★★ — Como’s six-match scoring streak at home meets Inter’s near-certain record of finding a goal.
- First-half draw around 2.25 ★ — Como often reach the break at 0-0, and title-day nerves could delay Inter’s breakthrough.
- Denzel Dumfries to register a goal or assist (goal price roughly 5.50, assist about 3.60) ★ — the Dutch wing-back is Inter’s prime set-piece target and has 11 goal involvements this season.
Always gamble responsibly: set limits, never stake what you cannot afford to lose, and seek help if betting stops being fun.
8 | Verdict
Como’s renaissance and fervent home crowd make this anything but a formality, yet Inter’s superior quality, set-piece threat and sheer necessity for three points should prevail. Expect the hosts to frustrate for a while, but watch for Inter’s pressure to tell once fresh legs come off the bench.
Prediction: Como 1 – 2 Inter. If Napoli falter in Naples, that result could yet wrestle the Scudetto back to Milan; otherwise, Inter may finish the night hoping for a Monday showdown.