Comfortable leads for three, four ties still level, and penalty shootouts on standby for the rest.
Seven aggregate scorelines, one weekend of domestic fixtures in between, and now the only number that matters: whichever side is ahead after 180 minutes gets Thursday's league-phase draw, and whichever side isn't gets a consolation prize in the Europa League. Away goals stopped counting double back in 2021, so for once the read is refreshingly simple — level after normal time in the second leg means half an hour more, and if that doesn't separate them, penalties do. Four of these seven ties are currently level on aggregate. That is an unusually high number for a play-off round, and it means this preview spends real time on shootout mechanics rather than treating extra time as a footnote.
The three sides sitting on comfortable first-leg cushions — Celtic, Bodø/Glimt and Hapoel Beer-Sheva — will be managing the tie rather than chasing it, which produces its own betting angles: goal-shy conservatism from the leaders, forced urgency from the teams trying to close the gap. The four level ties are more straightforward to read but harder to price, because a cagey 90 minutes and a barnstorming extra half hour both remain live outcomes on the same scoreboard.
The State of Play: Seven Ties, One Number Each
| Fixture | Leg 1 result | Aggregate | What the second leg needs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer-Sheva 2–1 Sabah | Hapoel win | 2–1 | Sabah must win by two clear goals; a one-goal Sabah win forces extra time |
| Celtic 3–0 LASK | Celtic win | 3–0 | LASK need a four-goal swing to go through; a 3-0 or better LASK win forces extra time |
| N.E.C. 1–3 Bodø/Glimt | Bodø/Glimt win | 1–3 | N.E.C. must win by three; a two-goal margin forces extra time |
| Levski Sofia 0–0 AEK Athens | Draw | 0–0 | Level going in — any winning margin in 90 minutes settles it |
| GNK Dinamo 2–2 Viking | Draw | 2–2 | Level going in — any winning margin in 90 minutes settles it |
| Slovan Bratislava 1–1 Celje | Draw | 1–1 | Level going in — any winning margin in 90 minutes settles it |
| Fenerbahçe 1–1 Lyon | Draw | 1–1 | Level going in — any winning margin in 90 minutes settles it |
The comfortable end of the card is genuinely comfortable. Bodø/Glimt could lose 1-0 in the Arctic Circle and still be on the flight to Nyon on Thursday morning. Celtic's 3-0 cushion is the largest of the round. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's advantage is the shakiest of the three leaders — a single Sabah goal at home flips the balance of the tie into extra-time territory, and Sabah have the joint-top scorer in this year's qualifying campaign leading their line.
The other four are where the interesting money sits. None of Levski Sofia, Dinamo Zagreb, Slovan Bratislava or Fenerbahçe managed to find a winner in the first leg, and all four return legs are hosted by the side that had the away draw — Athens, Stavanger, Celje and Lyon respectively get the second bite. Home advantage in a level tie is not nothing, but it is also not decisive; three of those four away sides scored in the first leg and have every reason to believe they can do it again.
Who's Carrying Form Into the Second Legs
Camilo Duran's introduction to Champions League football could not have gone much better — two goals in Celtic's 3-0 first-leg win, on top of a midweek double against Kilmarnock days earlier. Veljko Simić's tally is up to six for the qualifying campaign after finding the net inside six minutes for Sabah, even though his side went on to lose that first leg 2-1; he remains the outright top scorer across the whole qualifying field. Bodø/Glimt spread their goals around in Nijmegen — Sondre Fet, Andreas Helmersen and Haitam Aleesami all got on the scoresheet — which is exactly the kind of non-reliance on one man that makes them awkward to bet against even with rotation likely.
Among the level ties, Loïs Openda's opener for Lyon in Istanbul was the goal of the round on current form, and Milot Avdyli's equaliser for Celje against Slovan Bratislava was similarly eye-catching — a player increasingly central to Celje's push for a first-ever league-phase appearance. Roman Čerepkai's opener for Slovan in that same match keeps him involved in the goalscorer conversation for the return.
Line-up caveat: confirmed team sheets were not universally available at the time of writing. Rotation is a real factor this week — several of these clubs have midweek European commitments sandwiched between domestic openers, and squad rotation for a leg where the job already looks done (Celtic, Bodø/Glimt) is entirely plausible. Treat every scorer and card market as provisional until sheets land roughly an hour before kick-off.
What's Inside
- Sabah vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- LASK vs Celtic
- Bodø/Glimt vs N.E.C. Nijmegen
- AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia
- Viking vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- Celje vs Slovan Bratislava
- Lyon vs Fenerbahçe
- Betting Market Overview
- Suggested Betting Cards
- Extra Time, Penalties and How the Ties Actually Settle
- Final Predictions
- Final Word
Tuesday 25 August
Sabah vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva
Sabah are nine years old as a club and ninety minutes from the biggest occasion in their history, and they arrive at that occasion having lost the first leg despite scoring first. Veljko Simić's early strike in Beer Sheva briefly had Sabah dreaming, before Hapoel's comeback turned the tie around. That defeat has not dented Baku's home form, which remains flawless this European campaign — four wins from four at the Republican Stadium, seven goals scored, three clean sheets. If that record holds one more time, Sabah simply need it to hold by two clear goals rather than one.
Hapoel Beer-Sheva's route here has been built on defensive discipline rather than star names — a 3-0 aggregate win over Crvena Zvezda in the previous round was arguably the best defensive statement of the entire play-off field, and Zahi Ahmed has chipped in goals when needed. Coach Ran Kozuk's side are 90 minutes from a first-ever Champions League league-phase appearance for an Israeli club outside the traditional two or three at the top of that domestic pyramid, and that history is squarely in view.
Tactically, Sabah's route is obvious even if the execution is hard: press high, force Hapoel into mistakes in dangerous areas, and get an early goal to unsettle a side that has generally controlled games rather than chased them. Hapoel's counter-approach is patience — soak up the inevitable early pressure, keep the back line disciplined, and use the away goal already banked (even though it no longer counts double, psychologically a 2-1 aggregate lead with a goal already on the board away from home is a healthy cushion) to play for moments rather than territory.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| Sabah | 1.86 – 1.92 |
| Draw | 3.78 – 4.06 |
| Hapoel Beer-Sheva | 3.92 – 4.28 |
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Sabah to win (any margin)
- Value lean: Sabah win and both teams to score, given Ahmed's goal threat is unlikely to disappear entirely
- Correct-score angle: 2-1 Sabah — which, worth repeating, sends this to extra time rather than settling it
LASK vs Celtic
The scoreline from Celtic Park undersold how competitive this actually was. LASK's underlying numbers in Glasgow were better than a 3-0 defeat suggests — more expected goals than Celtic managed, two efforts disallowed for marginal offside calls, and a striker in Samuel Adeniran who looked a threat throughout. None of that changes the mathematics: LASK need four goals more than Celtic across this second leg, at home, against a side that has won four straight games and scored twelve goals in that run.
Celtic's approach to a three-goal cushion away from home is the interesting managerial question. Full-strength and aggressive risks an avoidable defeat if LASK start fast in front of their own crowd; conservative and compact risks gifting LASK exactly the momentum-building goal they need to make the closing stages nervy. Camilo Duran's brace and Benjamin Nygren's opener in the first leg suggest Celtic's attacking talent travels regardless of approach, and LASK's home form — beaten only twice on their own turf in twelve months — is a genuine complication even for a three-goal lead.
LASK's best route is an early goal and a raucous atmosphere behind them; Linz have lost only twice at home all year, and Sascha Horvath's ability to arrive from deep gives them a second scoring outlet beyond Adeniran. Celtic's counter is patience and control — Rodgers-style principals under Martin O'Neill would suggest keeping the ball, forcing LASK to commit numbers forward, and using the space in behind. Both teams have scored in six of the last seven matches at this venue, which should temper anyone backing a Celtic clean sheet too heavily.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| LASK | 2.02 – 2.40 |
| Draw | 2.37 – 2.70 |
| Celtic | 3.50 – 3.75 |
The match-result market and the aggregate reality are two different questions here, and it is worth separating them. LASK are genuinely fancied to win the night itself — home advantage, attacking form and a wounded pride all point that way — but Celtic's progression price barely moves off "formality" territory, with LASK's odds to overturn the tie quoted as long as 17/2 (roughly 8.50) by one major bookmaker. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals both look well-priced around 1.57 with several books.
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Both teams to score
- Alternative: Celtic double chance (draw or win) for anyone wanting exposure to the tie rather than the match
- Correct-score angle: 2-1 LASK — good for the neutral, comfortably short of what LASK actually need
Bodø/Glimt vs N.E.C. Nijmegen
Bodø/Glimt could lose this second leg 1-0 and still be through — that is how comfortable their away performance in Nijmegen was, and it is the starting point for everything else in this preview. Sondre Fet, Andreas Helmersen and Haitam Aleesami all scored in a 3-1 win that showed off exactly why this club reached the round of 16 last season, beating Manchester City, Inter and Atlético Madrid along the way. Clement Bischoff's late consolation goal is N.E.C.'s only real source of encouragement heading to the Arctic Circle, and it is thin encouragement against a side that has won four straight home Champions League matches, scoring three goals in each.
N.E.C.'s issue is less about ambition and more about squad depth — injuries have already cost them Koki Ogawa, Sami Ouaissa and Philippe Sandler for large stretches of this campaign, and stacking three clean, attacking performances on top of an already stretched squad is a big ask against a Bodø/Glimt side that averages over four goals a match in its last nine European fixtures. Ole Blomberg picked up a knock late in the first leg but is expected to be fit; August Mikkelsen, Hakon Evjen and Jostein Maurstad Gundersen remain unavailable, though Bodø/Glimt's squad depth means that matters far less to them than similar absences would to N.E.C.
Tactically this should still be entertaining even with the tie functionally over. Bodø/Glimt's high-tempo pressing and vertical attacking approach rarely changes regardless of the scoreline, and N.E.C. have no choice but to commit numbers forward from the first whistle. Both sides have hit at least three goals in the majority of their recent matches, and the Aspmyra crowd will be there for goals rather than a cautious siege.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | 1.54 – 1.57 |
| Draw | 4.10 – 4.40 |
| N.E.C. Nijmegen | 5.00 – 6.00 |
The progression market makes the story clearer than the match-result market does: Bodø/Glimt to advance is priced as short as 1.01–1.02 by some books, while N.E.C. to complete the turnaround stretches out to around 18.00. That gap is a fair reflection of a three-goal swing against a side who have scored fifteen goals in their last five European matches.
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Bodø/Glimt win and both teams to score
- Alternative: Over 2.5 goals — this fixture has produced eleven goals across two legs already this qualifying run for Bodø/Glimt against Union SG, and neither side plays with much interest in a 0-0
- Correct-score angle: 3-1 Bodø/Glimt
Wednesday 26 August
AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia
Nobody found a way through in Sofia, and the numbers explain why without needing much embellishment: Levski have built their entire qualifying run on 1-0 wins and clean sheets, while AEK created the better first-leg chances — Luka Jović twice went close, including a half-volley that came back off the crossbar — without ever quite finishing the job. AEK have looked considerably sharper since, thumping Iraklis 4-0 in their domestic opener, and that attacking rhythm arrives in Athens at a useful moment.
Levski's problem is not ambition, it is opportunity — they are unbeaten in ten matches and have won eight of them, largely by making games ugly and low-event rather than expansive. Julio Velázquez's side will look to replicate the containment that worked in the first leg: deny central passing lanes, force AEK wide, and trust that the away performance already banked buys them the composure to see out another twenty-plus tense minutes if it comes to that. AEK's route is patience under pressure rather than early urgency — a rushed first twenty minutes in a goalless tie plays into Levski's preferred rhythm, whereas building pressure through the second half, when Levski's low-event style tends to fatigue, has produced results for AEK before.
This is the classic 0-0 first-leg trap: a game that looks passive on paper but is genuinely finely poised, with both managers acutely aware that one mistake settles the entire tie.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 1.57 – 1.59 |
| Draw | 4.03 |
| Levski Sofia | 6.55 – 6.74 |
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals
- Alternative: AEK to win to nil, given Levski's low-event attacking output all summer
- Correct-score angle: 1-0 AEK — settled in 90, no extra time required
Viking vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Viking conceded twice inside the first ten minutes in Zagreb and still walked away with a share of the spoils, which tells you plenty about both the resilience of Zlatko Tripić's side and the finishing that let Dinamo down when the game was there to be won. Dinamo's coach admitted afterwards that his side created enough to have settled this already — hitting the crossbar among several missed opportunities — and that profligacy now travels with them to Norway's west coast for a match Dinamo's history suggests should still favour them.
Dinamo have won all but three of their last twenty-four Champions League qualifying ties and are unbeaten at home to Norwegian opposition across their history, though this fixture flips that script — Dinamo are now the travelling side, and their away record against Norwegian clubs specifically has been shakier than their home dominance suggests. Viking, playing a first-ever competitive fixture against Croatian opposition, have the low-key advantage of complete unpredictability working in their favour: neither manager has real historical data to lean on.
Expect an open game. Both sides have scored freely in the qualifying rounds — Viking average north of three goals a match including both teams scoring in nearly two-thirds of their fixtures, while Dinamo have found the net in twenty-five of their last twenty-six matches in all competitions. Neither defence looks capable of back-to-back clean sheets against attacking opposition right now, and Dinamo's away goal-scoring form away from Maksimir is the swing factor: if Lukas Kačavenda and the front line rediscover their qualifying-round sharpness, Dinamo should have enough. If not, Viking's home crowd and a genuine sense of history — a first-ever league-phase campaign within touching distance — could carry them through.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| Viking | 2.58 – 2.92 |
| Draw | 3.52 – 3.70 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.42 – 2.83 |
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals
- Value lean: Both teams to score, given neither side has kept back-to-back clean sheets recently
- Correct-score angle: 2-2 — settled by extra time, and possibly further
Celje vs Slovan Bratislava
Roman Čerepkai's opener for Slovan looked, briefly, like the platform for a routine home win in Bratislava. Milot Avdyli's response for Celje changed the complexion of the entire tie, and it arrives with real symbolic weight: a first-ever Champions League league-phase appearance is now genuinely within reach for a club that had to survive a penalty shootout against Egnatia just to get this far in qualifying. That resilience — recovering from a 1-2 first-leg deficit against Ararat-Armenia earlier in the campaign, then doing the same against Egnatia on spot kicks — is a repeating theme for Celje this summer, and it is worth remembering before writing them off in a tie that is currently level.
Slovan arrive with the superior squad on paper and a recent history of thumping Celje specifically — a 5-0 aggregate demolition in a previous meeting sits in the background of this tie, even if it has limited bearing on the current squads. Yaya Touré's side have won six of their last seven competitive matches and remain unbeaten across their two most recent meetings with Celje. Jost Pisek's absence for Celje through a cruciate injury is a genuine structural loss at the back, and it is the kind of gap a squad as talented as Slovan's should be equipped to exploit.
Tactically, expect Celje to lean on width and pace in transition rather than attempting to match Slovan for control in central areas — Mario Kvesić's movement between the lines was central to their fightback against Ararat-Armenia and remains their most repeatable route to goal. Slovan's counter is patient buildup, Sandro Cruz supplying from deep, and a willingness to accept that a 1-1 second leg simply extends the tie rather than losing it — their squad depth should be a genuine advantage in extra time if it comes to that.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| Celje | 2.45 – 2.51 |
| Draw | 3.34 – 3.43 |
| Slovan Bratislava | 2.90 – 2.98 |
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Both teams to score
- Alternative: Slovan Bratislava draw no bet, for anyone wanting exposure to the away side without the draw risk
- Correct-score angle: 1-1 — level again, and this tie has already shown it can go to penalties before
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe
This is the marquee tie of the round, and it is finely balanced enough to justify that billing. Loïs Openda's early goal in Istanbul had Lyon dreaming of an away win before Fenerbahçe responded to level the match, and Paulo Fonseca's side now get the version of this fixture they will have wanted from the outset — a level tie, at home, in front of a crowd that has not seen European football at this level since a 2019 semi-final run. Fenerbahçe, for their part, arrive unbeaten in six home Champions League qualifiers this year but now travel for the business end, needing to break a run of five previous defeats to Lyon across their history without a single win.
İsmail Kartal's side have been the more defensively solid of the two across this campaign, conceding one goal or fewer in five straight Champions League matches, and their squad — anchored by Mason Greenwood's market value as the standout individual in this tie and Anderson Talisca's continued goal threat, including his penalty-taking duties — gives them more individual quality than most sides left in this round. Lyon counter with a settled, in-form squad of their own: Ernest Nuamah, Malick Fofana and Ainsley Maitland-Niles all featured heavily in their Sparta Prague comeback, and a clean sheet in their most recent Ligue 1 outing suggests defensive solidity has travelled with them into the new season too.
The tactical picture is a genuine coin-flip. Fenerbahçe's away pressing and vertical directness could unsettle a Lyon side yet to play a competitive match on home soil this season, while Lyon's control of midfield tempo — built around a settled front three — gives them the tools to dictate territory if they start on the front foot. Both teams found the net in the first leg and neither defence has been watertight enough this summer to make a repeat especially surprising.
| Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| Lyon | 2.00 – 2.10 |
| Draw | 3.30 – 3.50 |
| Fenerbahçe | 3.50 – 3.80 |
Verdict
- Recommended bet: Lyon win
- Alternative: Both teams to score, given how evenly matched the attacking outputs have looked across both legs so far
- Correct-score angle: 2-1 Lyon — settled in 90 minutes, narrowly
Betting Market Overview
The three lopsided ties reward different thinking from the four level ones, and mixing them into one flat "back the favourites" card misses that distinction. Celtic, Bodø/Glimt and Hapoel Beer-Sheva are managing leads rather than chasing wins, which typically produces slightly lower-event football than the raw goal-difference numbers suggest — good for progression bets, less automatically good for match-goals markets. The level ties are the opposite: four sides with genuine incentive to attack from kick-off, because a draw does nothing for anyone except set up extra time.
- Best progression banker: Bodø/Glimt to advance
- Best match-result value: Lyon to win at home
- Best goals angle: Bodø/Glimt vs N.E.C. over 2.5
- Best BTTS lean: Celje vs Slovan Bratislava
- Best under lean: AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia under 2.5
- Best underdog protection: Celtic double chance in accumulators, rather than backing the outright win
- Extra-time watch: all four level ties, but Viking vs Dinamo and Celje vs Slovan carry the highest goals expectancy alongside that risk
Suggested Betting Cards
Conservative card
- Bodø/Glimt to win, around 1.55
- AEK Athens under 2.5 goals
- Sabah to win (any margin)
- Lyon double chance
Value card
- Slovan Bratislava draw no bet
- Both teams to score — LASK vs Celtic
- Both teams to score — Celje vs Slovan Bratislava
- Sabah win and BTTS
Goals-based card
- Bodø/Glimt vs N.E.C. over 2.5
- Viking vs Dinamo Zagreb over 2.5
- LASK vs Celtic BTTS
- Lyon vs Fenerbahçe BTTS
Extra Time, Penalties, and How These Ties Actually Settle
Practically, that means Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens, Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking, Slovan Bratislava vs Celje and Fenerbahçe vs Lyon are all genuine extra-time and shootout candidates — any 90-minute draw in any of those four sends the tie into the additional half hour. Celje in particular have already been there once this summer, winning their shootout against Egnatia after a 5-5 aggregate scoreline, so nerves under those specific circumstances are at least a known quantity for one side of that specific match-up.
↑ Back to ContentsFinal Predictions
| Date | Fixture | Prediction (leg) | Tie outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug | Sabah vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva | 2-1 Sabah | Extra time — Hapoel Beer-Sheva progress |
| 25 Aug | LASK vs Celtic | 2-1 LASK | Celtic progress comfortably |
| 25 Aug | Bodø/Glimt vs N.E.C. Nijmegen | 3-1 Bodø/Glimt | Bodø/Glimt progress comfortably |
| 26 Aug | AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia | 1-0 AEK | AEK Athens progress |
| 26 Aug | Viking vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 2-2 | Extra time — Dinamo Zagreb progress |
| 26 Aug | Celje vs Slovan Bratislava | 1-1 | Extra time — Slovan Bratislava progress |
| 26 Aug | Lyon vs Fenerbahçe | 2-1 Lyon | Lyon progress |
Final Word
The headline sides should get there in the end — Celtic and Bodø/Glimt have too much of a cushion to squander, and Hapoel Beer-Sheva's defensive record makes their advantage sturdier than the scoreline alone suggests. The genuinely open matches are the four level ties, and none of them lend themselves to a confident single. If you want the sensible card, keep it to Bodø/Glimt to win, AEK Athens under 2.5, and Sabah to win the match without expecting it to settle the tie. If you're building toward the level ties, both-teams-to-score is the more defensible route into all four than picking an outright winner — Celje's shootout pedigree, Dinamo's away-goal wobbles and Fenerbahçe's away record against Lyon specifically all argue against treating any of the four as a formality.