Carrick's Red Devils Host Guardiola's Reinforced City in a Derby Dripping with Drama—Plus Complete Match Previews, Tactical Breakdowns, and Expert Predictions for All 10 Fixtures
Complete Preview & Sports Betting Analysis | 17th-19th January 2026
Executive Summary
Welcome to another weekend of Premier League football, where the title race continues to simmer, the managerial merry-go-round has delivered fresh chaos at Old Trafford, and the January transfer window has already produced its headline act. Gameweek 22 offers ten fixtures spread across three days, headlined by a Manchester Derby that promises to be anything but dull given the seismic shifts at both clubs in recent weeks.
Arsenal sit pretty at the summit with 49 points from 21 matches (W15-D4-L2), maintaining a six-point cushion that looks increasingly comfortable. Liverpool, last season's champions, have found their title defence complicated by Alexander Isak's long-term ankle injury, though they remain formidable at Anfield. Manchester City have responded to their mid-season wobbles by opening the chequebook, with Antoine Semenyo's £64m arrival from Bournemouth signalling Pep Guardiola's intent.
Manchester United, meanwhile, are in the midst of their seventh managerial search since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. Ruben Amorim's 14-month tenure ended abruptly on January 5th following a public breakdown in relations with the club hierarchy. Michael Carrick has been appointed as interim manager until the end of the season, tasked with steadying a ship that's been listing for over a decade now.
1. League Context & Current Standings
Current Table Analysis
After 21 compelling weeks, a clear hierarchy has emerged across the division, though nothing is settled at either end of the table:
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | +26 | 49 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | +21 | 44 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | +18 | 42 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | +12 | 38 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | +8 | 36 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | +3 | 29 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 28 |
| 9 | Brighton | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | -2 | 25 |
Arsenal's title credentials look genuine this time around, with Mikel Arteta's side having conceded just 10 goals all season - the division's best defensive record. Viktor Gyokeres has added the firepower they've craved for years, while the summer additions of Eze, Norgaard, and Zubimendi have elevated their midfield depth.
The promoted sides have produced contrasting fortunes. Sunderland, with Granit Xhaka pulling strings in midfield, have been the revelation - an unbeaten home record (W5-D5-L0) has them dreaming of European football. Leeds United are competitive but inconsistent, while Burnley find themselves in a dogfight at the wrong end.
Key Statistical Trends
- Goals Per Game: League average of 2.78, up from 2.64 last season
- Home Win Rate: 42.3% (down from 44.1% last season)
- Clean Sheets: Arsenal lead with 12, Burnley bottom with 3
- Most Draws: Sunderland (10), Crystal Palace (9)
2. Top Scorer Race & Individual Performance
Golden Boot Standings
| Pos | Player | Team | Goals | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 16 | 4 |
| 2 | Igor Thiago | Brentford | 13 | 2 |
| 3 | Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City* | 10 | 3 |
| 4 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | Viktor Gyokeres | Arsenal | 9 | 5 |
| 6 | Bryan Mbeumo | Manchester United | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 8 | 4 |
*Goals scored at Bournemouth before January transfer
Haaland has reasserted himself after a relatively quiet October, rattling in six goals in his last five appearances. His brace in the 3-0 December victory over West Ham included a penalty and a typically ruthless close-range finish. City's acquisition of Semenyo adds another dimension to their attack, potentially freeing Haaland from some defensive attention.
Brentford's Igor Thiago continues to defy expectations in his debut Premier League campaign. The Brazilian has been remarkably clinical, converting chances at a rate that suggests his 13-goal haul could expand significantly before May.
Mohamed Salah's numbers look modest by his standards, though his 8 assists lead the division. The Egyptian has been deployed more conservatively since Alexander Isak's December injury, with Arne Slot prioritizing collective responsibility over individual brilliance.
Form Players Entering GW22
- Erling Haaland (Man City): 6 goals in last 5 matches, including brace vs West Ham
- Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal): 4 goals in last 5, thriving in Arteta's system
- Igor Thiago (Brentford): 3 goals in last 3, penalty specialist
- Cole Palmer (Chelsea): 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 under new boss Rosenior
3. Saturday 17th January - Match Previews
⚔️ Manchester United vs Manchester City
The 193rd Manchester Derby arrives at a moment of extraordinary flux for the Red Devils. Michael Carrick's first league match as interim manager pits him against his former City teammate Pep Guardiola in a fixture that usually transcends form and context.
Team News - Manchester United
Carrick inherits a squad depleted by AFCON absences (Amad Diallo, Noussair Mazraoui) and injury concerns. Lisandro Martinez is rated 50/50 after a muscular complaint sustained in the Burnley draw, while Bruno Fernandes serves the second match of a two-game suspension following his red card at Leeds. The good news? Rasmus Hojlund is fit after recovering from a hamstring strain.
Team News - Manchester City
Antoine Semenyo is available for his Premier League debut following his £64m move from Bournemouth. Pep Guardiola confirmed the Ghanaian will be in the squad after featuring in the FA Cup win over Exeter. Jack Grealish serves a one-match suspension following his two yellow cards against Brighton, while Josko Gvardiol remains sidelined with a knee issue.
Tactical Analysis
Expect Carrick to deploy a more pragmatic approach than Amorim's dogmatic 3-4-3. The former midfielder is likely to opt for a compact 4-2-3-1, prioritizing defensive organization before looking to hit City on the counter. City's three consecutive draws (Brighton, Newcastle, Fulham) suggest vulnerability, but their 9-3-4 record as away favourites over the last 12 months demands respect.
Recent Form:
- Manchester United (Last 5): D-D-L-D-W | Struggled for wins since Amorim's departure
- Manchester City (Last 5): D-D-D-W-W | Three draws concerning but attack still potent
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Man City Win | 1.78 |
| Double Chance - Man City/Draw | 1.36 |
| Over/Under Goals - Over 2.5 | 1.65 |
| Both Teams to Score - Yes | 1.57 |
| Anytime Scorer - Haaland | 1.45 |
💎 Value Pick
Manchester United +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.53. Derbies are notoriously tight affairs, and United's defensive solidity under Fletcher's interim tenure (0.67 xGA per game) suggests they won't be blown away. City's fixture congestion (League Cup semi-final vs Newcastle on Tuesday, Champions League at Bodo/Glimt on Monday) could see rotation.
Chelsea vs Brentford
Liam Rosenior's Chelsea continue their rehabilitation project at home to a Brentford side who have proven the ultimate banana skin this season. The Bees' Igor Thiago-led attack has terrorized far better defences than Chelsea's.
Team News
Chelsea: Welcome back Cole Palmer after he missed the FA Cup win over Charlton with a minor knock. Rosenior confirmed the England star trained fully this week. Romeo Lavia remains out until February with his recurring hamstring issues, while Wesley Fofana is available after serving his suspension.
Brentford: Without captain Nathan Collins (thigh), leaving Keith Andrews to reshuffle his defence. Kristoffer Ajer is expected to deputize, while Mikkel Damsgaard returns from illness.
Key Battle
Igor Thiago vs Wesley Fofana. The Brazilian striker has been clinical against top-six opposition this season (5 goals in 7 matches), while Fofana's pace and positioning will be tested by Thiago's intelligent movement.
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Chelsea Win | 1.65 |
| Both Teams to Score - Yes | 1.70 |
| Over/Under Goals - Over 2.5 | 1.75 |
| Anytime Scorer - Igor Thiago | 2.20 |
Liverpool vs Burnley
Liverpool's fortress Anfield hosts newly-promoted Burnley in what should be a straightforward afternoon for Arne Slot's men. The Reds have won their last 14 home league matches against promoted sides.
Team News
Liverpool: Alexander Isak remains a long-term absentee following his December ankle surgery, expected back in late February at earliest. Slot confirmed the Swedish striker's recovery is progressing well but there's no rush. Joel Matip is available after recovering from illness.
Burnley: Welcome back Josh Cullen from suspension but remain without Vitinho (hamstring) and Ameen Al-Dakhil (ACL).
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Liverpool Win | 1.18 |
| Asian Handicap - Liverpool -2.0 | 1.95 |
| Clean Sheet - Liverpool Yes | 1.85 |
| Over/Under Goals - Over 2.5 | 1.50 |
🎯 Banker Selection
Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.55. Burnley have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their 10 away matches this season, and Liverpool's Anfield record against promoted sides is formidable.
⭐ Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
The headline Saturday evening fixture sees league leaders Arsenal travel to the City Ground, where Sean Dyche's Forest have proven difficult to break down. This is a potential banana skin for Arteta's title chasers.
Team News - Nottingham Forest
Sean Dyche's tenure has steadied the ship after Ange Postecoglou's disastrous 39-day spell. Chris Wood (knee) and Ryan Yates (groin) remain sidelined, while Oleksandr Zinchenko serves the final match of his three-game suspension for violent conduct. Ibrahima Sangare returns from AFCON duty.
Team News - Arsenal
Arteta has a near-full squad to choose from. Riccardo Calafiori is expected to return to the starting XI after recovering from illness, while Gabriel Jesus is pushing for a start after three substitute appearances. Thomas Partey remains doubtful with a calf complaint.
Tactical Analysis
Forest's 5-4-1 defensive shape under Dyche has conceded just 4 goals in 7 matches since his appointment. Arsenal's 80% away win rate this season (W8-D2-L0) speaks to their ruthlessness on the road, but this will require patience. Expect Arteta to deploy width through Saka and Martinelli, attempting to stretch Forest's compact block.
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Arsenal Win | 1.61 |
| Under/Over Goals - Under 2.5 | 1.90 |
| Both Teams to Score - No | 1.95 |
| Correct Score - 0-2 Arsenal | 7.50 |
Other Saturday Fixtures
Leeds United vs Fulham
15:00, Elland Road
Leeds' strong home form (W5-D4-L1) meets Fulham's away struggles. Ethan Ampadu leads a Leeds side still adjusting to life back in the top flight.
Prediction: Leeds Win | Odds: 2.10
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace
15:00, Stadium of Light
Sunderland's unbeaten home record faces Palace's nine-game winless run. Granit Xhaka has been the revelation in central midfield.
Prediction: Sunderland Win | Odds: 2.40
Tottenham vs West Ham
15:00, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Thomas Frank's Spurs look to continue their resurgence against a West Ham side with 0-3-6 form. Cristian Romero captains the home side.
Prediction: Tottenham Win | Odds: 1.70
4. Sunday 18th January - Match Previews
Wolverhampton vs Newcastle United
Rob Edwards' Wolves have steadied after their dismal start under Vitor Pereira, going unbeaten in three. Newcastle arrive from a gruelling EFL Cup semi-final first leg against Arsenal, with Champions League commitments looming.
Key Factors
- Wolves haven't lost at home by 2+ goals to Newcastle since 1958
- Newcastle's 2-3-5 away record reflects their European fixture congestion
- Toti captains a Wolves side showing defensive improvement
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Draw | 3.40 |
| Double Chance - Wolves/Draw | 1.75 |
| Under/Over Goals - Under 2.5 | 1.85 |
Aston Villa vs Everton
Aston Villa look to consolidate their top-four position against an Everton side adjusting to life at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Unai Emery's men are unbeaten in their last seven home matches.
Team News
Villa: Remain without Tyrone Mings (thigh) and Pau Torres (calf), while Evann Guessand is at AFCON. Morgan Rogers has been in excellent form, averaging 6.3 FPL points per start.
Everton: James Tarkowski serves the second of his two-match suspension following Michael Keane's red card against Wolves. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (thigh) is rated doubtful.
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Villa Win | 1.55 |
| Both Teams to Score - No | 2.00 |
| Anytime Scorer - Ollie Watkins | 1.90 |
5. Monday 19th January - Match Previews
Brighton vs Bournemouth
The gameweek concludes with Brighton hosting a Bournemouth side reeling from Antoine Semenyo's departure. The Seagulls' 5-4-1 home record should translate to victory here.
Key Context
Bournemouth will need to quickly identify Semenyo's replacement, having lost their top scorer's 10 goals and creative spark. Andoni Iraola's side have managed just 1 win in their last 12 league matches, with away form particularly concerning (1-4-5).
Brighton under Fabian Hurzeler have been quietly efficient at home. Their 4-1-1 home record against Bournemouth in the Premier League era suggests this should be comfortable.
Betting Analysis
| Market Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Match Result - Brighton Win | 1.80 |
| Clean Sheet - Brighton Yes | 2.40 |
| Over/Under Goals - Under 2.5 | 1.90 |
6. Accumulator Suggestions
🎯 Banker Accumulator (Low Risk)
- Liverpool to beat Burnley - 1.18
- Arsenal to beat Nottingham Forest - 1.61
- Aston Villa to beat Everton - 1.55
Combined Odds: 2.94 | Stake: £10 returns £29.40
💰 Value Accumulator (Medium Risk)
- Manchester City to beat Manchester United - 1.78
- Tottenham to beat West Ham - 1.70
- Brighton to beat Bournemouth - 1.80
- Leeds to beat Fulham - 2.10
Combined Odds: 11.43 | Stake: £5 returns £57.15
⚽ BTTS Accumulator
- Manchester United vs Manchester City - BTTS Yes - 1.57
- Chelsea vs Brentford - BTTS Yes - 1.70
- Leeds vs Fulham - BTTS Yes - 1.75
Combined Odds: 4.67 | Stake: £5 returns £23.35
🔥 Goals Accumulator
- Liverpool vs Burnley - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.50
- Chelsea vs Brentford - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.75
- Manchester United vs Manchester City - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.65
Combined Odds: 4.33 | Stake: £5 returns £21.65
7. Players to Watch
Star Performers
- Erling Haaland (Man City): The Norwegian is primed for a big performance against United. His record in Manchester Derbies (4 goals in 5 appearances) speaks for itself.
- Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal): The Swedish striker has adapted seamlessly to Premier League football, offering Arsenal the clinical finishing they've lacked for years.
- Cole Palmer (Chelsea): The England star looks reinvigorated under Liam Rosenior. His home record at Stamford Bridge (6 goals, 4 assists) makes him a constant threat.
- Declan Rice (Arsenal): Averaging 6.4 FPL points per start, the midfielder has added goals to his game (3 this season) while maintaining his defensive excellence.
Emerging Talents
- Myles Lewis-Skelly (Arsenal): The 19-year-old has impressed at left-back, offering a dynamic presence that's caught the eye of England selectors.
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal): Another Hale End graduate making his mark, the midfielder is pushing for more regular minutes.
- Rayan Cherki (Man City): The French playmaker has averaged 6.3 points per start since his £45m summer move, second only to Declan Rice among midfielders.
Key Absences
- Alexander Isak (Liverpool): Out until late February with ankle surgery. His absence has significantly impacted Liverpool's attacking threat.
- Bruno Fernandes (Man United): Suspended for the derby following his red card at Leeds.
- Jack Grealish (Man City): Serves one-match suspension after accumulating two yellows against Brighton.
- Michael Keane (Everton): Two-match ban following direct red card against Wolves.
8. Expert Predictions Summary
Match Predictions
| Fixture | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Man United vs Man City | 1-2 | Medium |
| Chelsea vs Brentford | 2-1 | Medium |
| Leeds vs Fulham | 2-1 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Burnley | 3-0 | High |
| Sunderland vs Crystal Palace | 1-0 | Medium |
| Tottenham vs West Ham | 2-0 | High |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 0-2 | Medium |
| Wolves vs Newcastle | 1-1 | Low |
| Aston Villa vs Everton | 2-0 | High |
| Brighton vs Bournemouth | 2-0 | Medium |
Banker Bets of the Weekend
- Liverpool to beat Burnley (1.18) - Anfield fortress, poor Burnley away record
- Tottenham to beat West Ham (1.70) - Hammers' woeful 0-3-6 form is indefensible
- Aston Villa to beat Everton (1.55) - Villa's home form against weakened Everton defence
Value Picks
- Sunderland to beat Crystal Palace (2.40) - Unbeaten at home vs nine-game winless Palace
- Leeds to beat Fulham (2.10) - Strong home form, Fulham's away struggles
- Manchester United +0.5 AH (1.53) - Derby unpredictability, City's fixture congestion
9. January Transfer Window Update
Headline Deal: Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City
The window's marquee signing sees Bournemouth's star forward join Manchester City for £64m (£62.5m + £1.5m bonuses). The Ghanaian international had 10 Premier League goals this season and scored a dramatic last-minute winner against Tottenham in his Bournemouth farewell.
Semenyo has signed a five-and-a-half-year contract and takes the No.42 shirt, previously worn by Yaya Toure. He could make his Premier League debut in the Manchester Derby, offering Pep Guardiola a dynamic option on either wing.
Managerial Changes
Manchester United's managerial situation dominated January's early headlines. Ruben Amorim's sacking on January 5th followed a public breakdown with the club hierarchy. Darren Fletcher served as interim for two matches before Michael Carrick was announced as caretaker until end of season. Carrick, who previously served as interim after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's departure, brings Premier League experience from his Middlesbrough tenure.
Chelsea appointed Liam Rosenior on January 6th following Enzo Maresca's departure on New Year's Day. The former Brentford assistant has made an immediate impact, winning his first match 5-1 against Charlton in the FA Cup.
Other Notable Moves
- Manchester City remain linked with Crystal Palace defender Marc Guehi, who is out of contract in summer
- Manchester United reportedly pursuing Al Hilal midfielder Ruben Neves
- Liverpool monitoring options following Isak's injury, though Slot has downplayed January activity
Final Thoughts
Gameweek 22 offers something for everyone: a Manchester Derby with more narratives than a soap opera, a title-chasing Arsenal side navigating a potential banana skin, and promoted Sunderland continuing their fairytale season against a Palace side in freefall.
The betting markets are particularly interesting this weekend. The Manchester Derby's uncertainty makes the +0.5 Asian Handicap on United appealing, while Liverpool's fixture against Burnley represents the safest banker of the weekend. Value hunters should look towards Sunderland's home clash with Crystal Palace.
As always, gamble responsibly. The Premier League has a habit of producing results that defy logic, form, and historical precedent. That's what makes it the most compelling football league on earth.
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All odds subject to change. This analysis is for informational purposes only.