Why the Atlas Lions at 3.75 Terrify Smart Bettors, Where Algeria and Senegal Hide Value at 7.50, and Your Cynical Guide to Profiting from Africa's Biggest Tournament
Listen, you're not here for the romance of African football or the pageantry of continental competition. You're here because the odds compilers have given us a month-long gift wrapped in green and packaged with home advantage, and we need to work out whether to take the bow or open the box.
The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off tomorrow when Morocco faces Comoros in Rabat, marking the first time the tournament will be held during Christmas and New Year—a scheduling quirk courtesy of FIFA's bloated Club World Cup. Twenty-four teams across six groups, all chasing a trophy that's proven remarkably difficult to predict, even if the bookies pretend otherwise.
The Favourite That Should Terrify You
Morocco arrives as 3.75 favourites, and on paper, it makes perfect sense. They're Africa's highest-ranked nation at 11th globally, reached the World Cup semi-finals in 2022, and won all six qualifying matches while scoring 26 goals. Walid Regragui's side lost just twice in 2024 and boasts players from Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, and across Europe's elite clubs.
But here's the uncomfortable truth bookmakers hope you'll ignore: hosts have won this tournament 12 times out of 34 editions, which gives Morocco a 35% historical conversion rate—significantly lower than their implied probability of 39% at current prices. Even more concerning, three of the last five hosts have won, which sounds compelling until you realize that's still a 40% failure rate for teams with every conceivable advantage.
Morocco's 2022 World Cup run was built on defensive solidity—they conceded just one goal (an own goal) in their first six matches. Regragui deployed a compact 4-3-3 that could morph into a 5-4-1, absorbing pressure and striking on the counter with devastating efficiency. They knocked out Belgium with 56% possession for their opponents, Spain with 23% possession for Morocco, and Portugal with 27%.
The Morocco Paradox: Since the World Cup, Regragui admits he's evolved. "After the World Cup, we naturally evolved...Today, we are more of a possession-based, proactive team," he told Sky Sports. The problem? International football doesn't give you time to rebuild tactical identity. You get three group games, then knockout football. Morocco is attempting to be both things—the defensive unit that frustrated Europe's elite and the proactive side that dominates possession—and that's a recipe for confusion under pressure.
Add Achraf Hakimi's ankle injury, which has him racing to be fit for the opener despite PSG's medical staff advising caution, and suddenly the 3.75 price looks less like value and more like hope.
Egypt: Salah's Last Dance or Another Penalty Heartbreak?
At 7.00, Egypt represents the market's second choice, and the reasoning is straightforward: Mohamed Salah is one of the world's best players, Egypt qualified for the 2026 World Cup with a flawless defensive record (zero goals conceded across 10 qualifiers), and they're the tournament's most successful nation with seven titles.
But let's talk about what those odds don't account for. Salah, 33, is coming off a difficult spell at Liverpool where he was dropped by Arne Slot and subsequently complained about being "thrown under the bus". His coach insists his morale is "very high", but Salah hasn't scored since early November, and Egypt's recent friendly against Uzbekistan offered little reassurance.
Egypt's World Cup qualifying run was dominant statistically—19 goals scored, two conceded across nine matches—but the competition was Sierra Leone, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, and Ethiopia. Hardly a gauntlet. In tournament football, where Egypt have reached two finals (2017 and 2021) and lost both, their track record under pressure is concerning.
The Egypt Reality Check: They're tournament specialists at reaching finals and bottling them, which is precisely what makes them dangerous to back at 7.00. The fundamental problem is over-reliance. Remove Salah from the equation, and you have a team that qualified comfortably but uninspiringly against modest opposition. Coach Hossam Hassan even admits: "Salah needs to win the cup by helping us and by helping himself". When your tactical plan includes the phrase "Salah needs to," you're not backing a team—you're backing a single player to carry 10 teammates through a month of football.
Algeria and Senegal: The Value Proposition
Here's where it gets interesting. Algeria at 7.50 and Senegal at 7.50 offer significantly better risk-reward profiles than either Morocco or Egypt, and the data supports it.
Algeria won this tournament in 2019 and haven't won a single AFCON match since—two consecutive group-stage exits. That should terrify you. Instead, it should excite you. They accumulated the second-most qualifying points behind Morocco, they're coached by Vladimir Petković (a manager who took Switzerland to the World Cup), and their squad includes Riyad Mahrez, Ismaël Bennacer, and a blend of experience across European leagues.
The 2019 triumph was built on defensive organization and tactical discipline. The subsequent failures came as Algeria shifted identity. Now, with Petković implementing structure and Mahrez (34 years old) potentially in his final tournament, there's narrative momentum. Sports betting isn't about stories, but AFCON has repeatedly proven that experienced squads with a point to prove outperform flashier sides who expect to win.
At 7.50, Algeria offers each-way value. Most bookmakers pay 1/2 odds for places 1-2 in the outright market, meaning you're covered if they reach the final. Given their qualifying form, tactical solidity, and the desperation of a squad that's failed twice since winning, 7.50 represents genuine value.
Senegal at 7.50 is the other bet worth considering. They won this tournament in 2021 by beating Egypt on penalties, reached the 2019 final, and qualified for the 2026 World Cup with seven wins and three draws across 10 matches. Their squad depth is remarkable: Sadio Mané (33), Kalidou Koulibaly (34), Édouard Mendy (33), Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, and Pape Matar Sarr. That's Champions League-winning experience combined with Premier League quality.
Why Senegal Matters: Senegal doesn't rely on a single player. When Mané missed his penalty in the 2021 final, they didn't collapse—they regrouped and won the shootout. When Egypt tried the same trick in multiple knockout rounds (they won three penalty shootouts en route to the 2021 final), Senegal held their nerve. At 4.00 to reach the final, that's where the real value sits.
Nigeria: The Fade of the Tournament
Nigeria at 11.00 should be avoided like a penalty shootout against DR Congo. Despite boasting Victor Osimhen (joint-favourite for top scorer at 7.00) and Ademola Lookman (reigning African Player of the Year), Nigeria failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, appointed a new coach in Eric Chelle mid-campaign, and exhibited chaotic squad management (naming a 54-man provisional squad before trimming to 28).
Their World Cup qualifying collapse—finishing behind South Africa and Benin—wasn't a blip. It was a warning. Yes, they reached the 2023 final and lost to Ivory Coast in dramatic fashion, but that tournament saw them scrape through several matches unconvincingly. The Super Eagles possess elite attacking talent but lack cohesion, defensive organization, and the tactical clarity required to win tournaments.
At 11.00, Nigeria is priced on reputation and individual quality, not collective form. That's a sucker bet.
The Dark Horses and Each-Way Specials
AFCON's format—24 teams with four third-place qualifiers advancing—creates opportunities for longshots.
South Africa at 41.00 reached the semi-finals in 2023 and topped Nigeria in World Cup qualifying. They're defensively solid, tactically disciplined under Hugo Broos, and have genuine quality in Lyle Foster and Ronwen Williams.
Burkina Faso at 101.00 finished runners-up in 2013 and placed third in 2017 and fourth in 2021. They're perennial over-performers with a squad featuring Bertrand Traoré and Dango Ouattara. At 101.00 with each-way terms paying 1/2 odds for 1-2 places, a small stake offers huge upside if they reach the final.
Mali at 13.00 are the tournament's nearly-men—multiple semi-finals, never a title. But with Yves Bissouma anchoring midfield and a squad comfortable in tournament football, they offer each-way value to reach the latter stages.
Group Stage Betting: Where the Money Is Made
Forget outright winners for a moment. The group stage is where disciplined bettors profit, and the data supports specific angles:
Group A: Morocco to win the group at 1.44 is prohibitively short, but Mali to qualify (finishing second) at better odds offers value. Comoros and Zambia don't have the quality to challenge.
Group B: This is the trickiest group. Egypt at 1.61 to win it assumes Salah drags them through, but South Africa (who qualified for the World Cup ahead of Nigeria) are underestimated at 3.50. Back South Africa each-way in the group winner market.
Group C: Nigeria at 1.83 is short given their qualifying collapse, but Tunisia at 2.62 offers value. Tunisia qualified for the 2026 World Cup without conceding a goal across 10 matches—28 points from 30 available, the best record in African qualifying. That defensive solidity makes them live dogs to top the group.
Group D: Senegal to win at 1.40 is fair. They should dominate, but DR Congo at longer odds to qualify (finish second) is worth considering given their knockout pedigree.
Group E: Algeria to win at 1.44 is the safest bet in the tournament. Burkina Faso to finish second is the value play.
Group F: Ivory Coast at 1.83 to win the group represents value. As defending champions with home-continent momentum (even if not hosts), they have the experience to navigate a group featuring Cameroon (in chaos with managerial disputes) and Gabon.
Top Scorer: Where Bookies Make Their Money
Victor Osimhen and Mohamed Salah are joint-favourites at 7.00, and both are traps. Osimhen plays for a Nigeria side that lacked fluency in qualifying and may struggle for service. Salah plays for a team that scraped goals against limited opposition and looked toothless in friendlies.
Instead, consider Youssef En-Nesyri at 15.00. Morocco's striker will get chances at home with fervent support, and if the Atlas Lions progress deep (as their odds suggest), he'll accumulate opportunities. Ayoub El Kaabi at 11.00 is another option—Morocco's backup striker who converted consistently in qualifying.
For true value, Mohamed Amoura at 21.00 (each-way) offers upside. Algeria's forward has pace, plays in the Bundesliga, and if Algeria reaches the semi-finals (as 7.50 odds imply they could), he'll have enough matches to contend.
The Bet Sheet
If I'm allocating a notional £100 across this tournament:
- £25 on Algeria each-way at 7.50 (covers final appearance at 1/2 odds, wins outright at full odds)
- £20 on Senegal each-way at 7.50 (same logic—tournament-hardened squad with depth)
- £15 on Tunisia to win Group C at 2.75 (best defensive record in African qualifying, underestimated against Nigeria)
- £10 on South Africa to qualify from Group B (at group odds, they're overpriced given World Cup qualification)
- £10 on Burkina Faso each-way at 101.00 (tournament over-performers, tiny stake for huge upside)
- £10 on Ivory Coast to win Group F at 1.91 (defending champions, Cameroon in disarray)
- £10 on Youssef En-Nesyri top scorer at 15.00 (home advantage, Morocco expected to progress deep)
Morocco at 3.75 gets none of my money. Egypt at 7.00 is a pass. Nigeria at 11.00 is a fade. This tournament rewards tactical discipline, defensive organization, and squads who've been here before. It punishes favorites who expect to win on reputation alone.
AFCON has produced shock winners before—Zambia in 2012, Ivory Coast (after sacking their manager mid-tournament) in 2023. But it's also rewarded experienced sides who peak at the right moment—Senegal in 2021, Algeria in 2019. The data suggests this year's value sits somewhere between those extremes: not the explosive favorite, not the fairytale longshot, but the battle-tested contender priced like an also-ran.
Algeria and Senegal at 7.50 are those bets. Everything else is noise.
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