In-depth match previews, expert betting recommendations, and statistical analysis for all 10 fixtures from November 22-24, 2025
Executive Summary
Eleven gameweeks into the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, the competitive landscape has crystallized into familiar territory at the summit while delivering unexpected narratives elsewhere. Arsenal maintain their position atop the table with 26 points, establishing a four-point cushion over defending champions Manchester City, who bounced back emphatically from a difficult spell with a comprehensive 3-0 dismantling of Liverpool. Chelsea occupy third with 20 points, while the season's surprise package, newly-promoted Sunderland, sit fourth with 19 points—defying all pre-season predictions that had them nailed on for an immediate return to the Championship.
The middle of the table remains extraordinarily compressed, with seven clubs locked on 18 points, creating what can only be described as the most competitive mid-table scramble in recent Premier League history. At the bottom, Wolves' predicament grows increasingly desperate—rock bottom with just two points from eleven matches, they've already sacked Vitor Pereira and remain the only side across England's top seven tiers yet to register a win.
Erling Haaland continues his relentless pursuit of goal-scoring records, already sitting on 14 goals—six clear of his nearest challenger Igor Thiago—and is odds-on at 1/12 to claim his third Golden Boot in four seasons. The Norwegian's current trajectory suggests he's on pace to surpass his own record of 36 goals from his debut campaign.
1. League Context & Current Standings
The Table After Gameweek 11
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 26 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 22 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | Man Utd | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 11 | Brighton | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 | Brentford | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Everton | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Fulham | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Leeds | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Burnley | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | West Ham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
| 19 | Nottm Forest | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 20 | Wolves | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 2 |
Key Narratives
Title Race Dynamics: Arsenal's defensive solidity—just five goals conceded in eleven matches—provides the foundation for their title challenge, though their 2-2 draw at Sunderland before the international break was their first dropped points in five matches. Manchester City's 3-0 victory over Liverpool reignited their championship credentials, narrowing the gap and demonstrating why Pep Guardiola remains cautious: "Nobody wins the title in early November. You can lose it—but nobody wins it".
The Sunderland Sensation: Regis Le Bris has engineered the season's greatest surprise, guiding newly-promoted Sunderland to fourth place with an organized, disciplined approach that earned them a creditable draw against Arsenal. Their expected goals against (xGA) suggests underlying vulnerability, but results trump analytics in the Premier League survival game.
The Congested Middle: The unprecedented logjam sees Tottenham, Aston Villa, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Bournemouth all level on 18 points. This congestion means a single victory in Gameweek 12 could propel a team from ninth to potentially fifth, while defeat risks a slide towards mid-table mediocrity.
Relegation Battle Intensifies: Wolves' winless start has them seven points adrift of safety, with relegation odds at a punitive 1/10. Burnley (3/10) and West Ham (11/10) complete the current bottom three in the betting markets, while Nottingham Forest's appointment of Sean Dyche has brought immediate defensive improvement, with two wins from their last three.
2. Top Scorer Race & Individual Performance
Golden Boot Standings
| Rank | Player | Team | Goals | Assists | G/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Man City | 14 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 2 | Igor Thiago | Brentford | 8 | 0 | 0.73 |
| 3 | Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | 6 | 3 | 0.55 |
| 3 | Danny Welbeck | Brighton | 6 | 0 | 0.55 |
| 3 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 6 | 0 | 0.55 |
| 6 | Bryan Mbeumo | Man Utd | 5 | 1 | 0.45 |
The Haaland Hegemony
Erling Haaland's dominance borders on the absurd. His 14 goals represent exactly half of Manchester City's 28-goal total, and he's averaging 1.27 goals per 90 minutes—a rate that projects to 48 goals across a full 38-game season if sustained. At current pace, he'll comfortably surpass his own Premier League record of 36 goals set in 2022-23.
The betting markets have capitulated entirely: Haaland is 1/12 to win the Golden Boot, with over/under lines set at 36.5 goals for the season at 11/10. His nearest challenger, Igor Thiago, sits 20/1—a price that reflects bookmakers' assessment that only catastrophic injury could derail the Norwegian's march to history.
Haaland's Fixture Advantage: City's upcoming schedule includes matches against Newcastle (away), Leeds (home), and Brentford (away) before December—all eminently winnable fixtures where Haaland should feast.
The Chasing Pack
Igor Thiago has emerged as Brentford's lethal finisher after an injury-disrupted debut season. The Brazilian's eight goals have powered the Bees to 16 points, though his lack of creativity (zero assists) makes him reliant on service. He reclaimed penalty duties after Kevin Schade's miss at Sunderland, adding another dimension to his threat.
Antoine Semenyo combines goals with creativity (six goals, three assists) and represents excellent value for Bournemouth. His physical, versatile style makes him dangerous against any opponent, though his recent penalty miss at Aston Villa (in a 4-0 defeat) will need addressing mentally.
Mohamed Salah's Struggles: The Egyptian's four goals represent a significant downturn from his 29-goal Golden Boot triumph last season. His first open-play goal didn't arrive until Gameweek 10, and while his 250th Liverpool goal was a landmark moment, underlying metrics suggest confidence issues. At 25/1 for the Golden Boot, he's essentially written off by the markets.
3. Match-by-Match Comprehensive Previews
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22
League Positions: Burnley 17th (10 pts) | Chelsea 3rd (20 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Burnley: W-L-W-L-L (7 points)
- Chelsea: L-W-W-D-W (10 points)
Head-to-Head: Chelsea won the last meeting 4-1 at Turf Moor. Over the last 10 encounters, Chelsea have won seven, with three draws.
Team News
Burnley: The Clarets have the worst defensive metrics in the league, conceding 2.00 expected goals per game—a recipe for relegation. They've lost four of their last six matches and sit precariously above the drop zone only on goal difference. Luis Florentino is one booking away from suspension.
Chelsea: Enzo Maresca faces a significant injury crisis. Cole Palmer (groin) remains sidelined until at least the Barcelona clash midweek, while Romeo Lavia (thigh) is out until mid-December. Levi Colwill (ACL) won't return this season. Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernandez are both minor doubts but expected to feature.
Despite the absences, Chelsea possess the league's best expected goals (xG) at 1.91 per game and have won both of their recent away matches.
Tactical Analysis
Chelsea will dominate possession and create chances—they average 2.20 goals scored per game—while Burnley's porous defense (worst xGA in the league at 2.00) will struggle to contain Joao Pedro, who's expected to lead the line.
Burnley's home form (1.50 PPG) is marginally better than their away record, but they've kept just one clean sheet in their last six matches. Their attacking threat comes primarily from set pieces, with Jaidon Anthony (4 goals) their most dangerous outlet.
Key Battles
- Joao Pedro vs Josh Cullen: Chelsea's fluid forward will test Burnley's holding midfielder
- Moises Caicedo vs Quilindschy Hartman: Controlling central midfield will be decisive
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Banker selection for accumulators. Despite injuries, the quality gap is vast.
Chelsea's attack (1.91 xG) vs Burnley's defense (2.00 xGA) = goals
Burnley scored in 4/5 recent homes; Chelsea conceded in 3/5 away matches
Value given Chelsea's dominance in recent meetings
Leading the line with Palmer out, averaging 0.36 goals/90
Correct Score Prediction: Burnley 0-2 Chelsea
Score Probability (Opta Model): Chelsea Win 66.7% | Draw 23.8% | Burnley Win 17.4%
League Positions: Bournemouth 9th (18 pts) | West Ham 18th (10 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Bournemouth: W-W-L-L-L (6 points)
- West Ham: W-W-L-L-L (6 points)
Head-to-Head: Bournemouth won 4-1 in their most recent encounter. The Cherries have won three of the last five at home.
Team News
Bournemouth: Coming off back-to-back heavy defeats (3-1 at Man City, 4-0 at Aston Villa), confidence may be fragile. Niclas Fullkrug is expected to be fit and likely starts ahead of Callum Wilson. Antoine Semenyo remains their biggest threat despite his recent penalty miss.
West Ham: Nuno Espirito Santo's appointment has brought two consecutive home victories (3-1 vs Newcastle, 3-2 vs Burnley), but the Hammers have lost three of five away matches this season. Lucas Paqueta is suspended for five yellow cards—a massive blow to creativity. James Ward-Prowse or Magassa will deputize.
Tactical Analysis
Bournemouth's home form (2.60 PPG) is exceptional—joint-best in the division alongside Arsenal. They've won four of five at the Vitality Stadium and score at 2.00 goals per game at home. However, clean sheets are rare (four in eleven total games).
West Ham's away record is atrocious: just three points from five matches, conceding at least two goals in four of their last five games. Their defensive xGA of 2.09 goals per 90 minutes is second-worst in the league.
Key Battles
- Antoine Semenyo vs Vladimir Coufal: Semenyo's pace and power will test West Ham's right side
- Dominic Solanke vs Kurt Zouma: Physical battle in the box
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Home fortress meets woeful away travelers
Five of Bournemouth's last six produced 3+ goals; West Ham conceded 2+ in 8/11 games
Bournemouth conceded in 7/9 competitive matches; West Ham scored in 8/11
Value given West Ham's defensive collapse away from home
Six goals this season, will be hungry to respond after Villa penalty miss
Correct Score Prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 West Ham
Alternative Prediction: Bournemouth win or draw (Double Chance) for safety
League Positions: Brighton 11th (16 pts) | Brentford 12th (16 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Brighton: W-L-L-W-D (7 points)
- Brentford: W-W-W-L-W (12 points)
Head-to-Head: Their last meeting produced a six-goal thriller (4-2). Both teams have scored in recent encounters.
Team News
Brighton: Fabian Hurzeler's side drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace before the break, dropping them to 11th. Their home record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats) is their foundation—2.20 PPG at the Amex. Danny Welbeck (6 goals) has never scored double figures in a Premier League season until Hurzeler arrived; he's on pace to shatter that mark.
Brentford: Thomas Frank's men are in scintillating form with four wins in five matches, including a crucial 3-1 home victory over Newcastle. However, their away record is alarming: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats. Igor Thiago's eight goals make him the second-highest scorer in the league. Kristoffer Ajer and Antoni Milambo are out injured.
Tactical Analysis
This matchup pits Brighton's home fortress (unbeaten) against Brentford's away-day woes. Brighton rank seventh for xG (16.6) and have scored 17 goals, matching Brentford's total. Both teams are attack-minded, which explains the 3.60 average goals per game when Brentford play away.
Brentford's 1-0-4 away record suggests they struggle to translate their home dominance (13 points from 6 games) on the road. Brighton's post-shot xG ranks second in the league, indicating clinical finishing.
Key Battles
- Danny Welbeck vs Nathan Collins: Experience vs physicality
- Yankuba Minteh vs Rico Henry: Brighton's pacey winger targeting Brentford's left
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Home record (unbeaten) vs Brentford's away struggles (1-0-4)
Both scored in last meeting (4-2); both teams average 1.6+ goals/game
Six-goal thriller last time; both attacks potent
Brighton's home scoring rate (2.50 goals/game) justifies confidence
Six goals in eleven games, in career-best form
Correct Score Prediction: Brighton 2-1 Brentford
League Positions: Fulham 15th (11 pts) | Sunderland 4th (19 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Fulham: L-L-D-W-L (4 points)
- Sunderland: L-W-W-D-D (8 points)
Head-to-Head: Sunderland have won three of the last five at Craven Cottage, with BTTS in all three victories.
Team News
Fulham: Marco Silva's side are in freefall—five defeats in seven matches across all competitions. They concede 1.45 goals per 90 minutes and have the 16th-best xG (10.7). Sasa Lukic serves a one-match suspension for five yellow cards; Joshua King likely replaces him. Antonee Robinson and Rodrigo Muniz remain injured.
Sunderland: The season's revelation sits fourth with 19 points after drawing 2-2 with Arsenal. Regis Le Bris has built an organized, defensively solid unit—just ten goals conceded in eleven matches. Wilson Isidor (4 goals) leads the line, with Granit Xhaka (3 assists) pulling strings from midfield.
Tactical Analysis
Fulham's home form (1.50 PPG) isn't terrible, but recent momentum is entirely with Sunderland, who are unbeaten in four league matches (2W-2D). The Black Cats' away record (1.40 PPG) includes impressive results at top sides.
Opta's supercomputer surprisingly favors Fulham (51.6% win probability) over Sunderland (23.8%), likely due to home advantage and historical data. However, current form suggests a tighter contest.
Key Battles
- Raul Jimenez vs Luke O'Nien: Fulham's target man vs Sunderland's defensive midfielder
- Alex Iwobi vs Trai Hume: Creativity vs defensive discipline
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Sunderland's defensive organization makes them tough to beat; Fulham lack firepower
Sunderland concede just 0.91 goals/90; tactical battle expected
Happened in 5/7 recent H2H meetings at Craven Cottage
Safer route given their unbeaten run and Fulham's poor form
Four goals this season, Sunderland's primary goal threat
Correct Score Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Sunderland
League Positions: Liverpool 8th (18 pts) | Nottingham Forest 19th (9 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Liverpool: L-L-W-W-L (6 points)
- Forest: W-L-D-D-W (8 points)
Head-to-Head: Forest shocked Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield last season—one of the most surprising results of 2024-25. Liverpool have won 7 of the last 10 meetings overall.
Team News
Liverpool: Arne Slot's side lost 3-0 at Manchester City in their last outing, their fifth defeat in eleven matches—an alarming record for a team with title aspirations. They've conceded in every home game this season (10 goals in 5 games at Anfield). Alisson Becker, Jeremie Frimpong, and Stefan Bajcetic remain unavailable. Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak are pushing for starts.
Nottingham Forest: Sean Dyche's appointment has brought immediate defensive stability—two wins in the last three matches (including 3-1 over Leeds). Forest are yet to win away this season (0W-1D-4L), a damning statistic. Chris Wood and Callum Hudson-Odoi are doubtful; Ola Aina is injured.
Tactical Analysis
Liverpool's defensive issues are glaring: they've conceded 1.55 goals per 90 minutes and rank 8th for xGA at 13.9. Slot's tactical tweaks from last season's "almost perfect set-up" have backfired, leaving Liverpool more open to counters—precisely Forest's strength.
Forest under Dyche will sit deep, absorb pressure, and look to exploit transitions. However, their away record (0 wins) and Liverpool's home desperation make this a difficult ask. Anfield crowds will demand a response after the City humiliation.
Key Battles
- Mohamed Salah vs Neco Williams: Can Salah build on his goal at Villa?
- Dominik Szoboszlai vs Morgan Gibbs-White: Midfield creativity duel
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Forest's 0-5 away record makes them lambs to the slaughter despite Liverpool's struggles
Liverpool conceded in all 5 home games; Forest vulnerable away
Dyche teams often fold against elite attacks; Forest scored 0 goals in 4/5 away games
Needs to rediscover form; Anfield crowd will lift him
Expected to start after being rested for internationals
Correct Score Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Nottingham Forest
Alternative: Liverpool 2-1 given their defensive issues
League Positions: Wolves 20th (2 pts) | Crystal Palace 10th (17 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Wolves: L-L-L-L-L (0 points)
- Palace: L-W-W-W-D (10 points)
Head-to-Head: Palace won the last meeting 4-2. The Eagles have won 11 of the last 20 H2H encounters.
Team News
Wolves: Rock bottom and rudderless, Wolves have lost nine of eleven matches, conceding 25 goals—the worst defensive record in the league. They've sacked Vitor Pereira and face a new managerial era starting with this fixture. They've conceded 3+ goals in their last four matches and average 2.27 goals against per 90. Emmanuel Agbadou returns from suspension; Rodrigo Gomes is injured.
Crystal Palace: Oliver Glasner's side are difficult to beat, having conceded just nine goals in eleven matches—the best defensive record outside the top three. Jean-Philippe Mateta (6 goals) has earned a France call-up, while no team has created more big chances (34). Marc Guehi is recovering from a bone bruise and is 50/50 for this match. Cheick Doucoure and Edward Nketiah remain sidelined.
Tactical Analysis
This is a mismatch. Wolves' xG (9.6) is 18th in the league, while their xGA (16.0) is catastrophic. Palace's xG (18.14) and organized defense make them heavy favorites.
Palace's away record (1.40 PPG) is solid, and they've kept clean sheets in two of their last three away games. Wolves haven't kept a single clean sheet all season and have scored just seven goals.
Key Battles
- Jean-Philippe Mateta vs Max Kilman: Palace's in-form striker vs Wolves' porous defense
- Eberechi Eze vs Mario Lemina: Creativity vs desperation
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Wolves are winless; Palace defensively sound and clinical
Wolves conceded 3+ in last 4 games; they'll need to attack desperately
Wolves scored in 2/4 recent home games despite dire form
Value on Palace winning comfortably given Wolves' collapse
Six goals, facing worst defense in league
Correct Score Prediction: Wolves 2-3 Crystal Palace
League Positions: Newcastle 14th (12 pts) | Man City 2nd (22 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Newcastle: L-W-L-W-L (6 points)
- City: W-L-W-W-W (12 points)
Head-to-Head: City won 4-0 in their last meeting. The champions have won 3 of the last 5 H2H clashes.
Team News
Newcastle: Eddie Howe's side sit disappointingly in 14th after an inconsistent start (3W-3D-5L). Their defensive record is mediocre (14 goals conceded, 1.27 per 90), but they've kept five clean sheets—joint-third in the league. Nick Woltemade (4 goals) and Bruno Guimaraes (3 goals) carry the scoring burden. Dan Burn is available; no significant injury concerns.
Manchester City: Pep Guardiola's side are hitting stride after their 3-0 demolition of Liverpool. Haaland's 14 goals have papered over some structural issues, but City's away form (1.40 PPG) lags behind their home dominance (2.50 PPG). Rodri remains out; Mateo Kovacic's ankle injury is a concern. Gianluigi Donnarumma starts in goal; Rayan Cherki (attacking midfielder) adds creativity.
Tactical Analysis
Newcastle's home record (1.80 PPG) is respectable, and they've historically raised their game for big occasions at St. James' Park. However, City's quality—23 goals scored, best xG in the league—makes them favorites.
City's key strength is controlling possession and creating high-quality chances (2.09 xG per game). Newcastle will need to be clinical on the break and hope Haaland has an off-night (he's failed to score in his last five starts against Newcastle, a rare drought).
Key Battles
- Erling Haaland vs Sven Botman: Can Newcastle's defense contain the league's most lethal striker?
- Bruno Guimaraes vs Tijjani Reijnders: Midfield control will dictate tempo
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
City's quality and recent form (4 wins in 5) too strong
Newcastle scored in every home game; City conceded in 3/5 away matches
City's attack (2.60 goals/game) vs Newcastle's inconsistent defense
City won 4-0 last time; quality gap justifies handicap
14 goals in 11 games; will be desperate to end Newcastle hoodoo
Correct Score Prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Manchester City
Alternative: 1-3 or 2-3 scoreline likely given both teams' scoring threat
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23
League Positions: Leeds 16th (11 pts) | Aston Villa 6th (18 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Leeds: L-L-W-L-L (3 points)
- Villa: L-W-L-W-W (9 points)
Head-to-Head: Villa have won recent encounters, but Leeds' home advantage (1.60 PPG) gives them a fighting chance.
Team News
Leeds: Daniel Farke's side are struggling badly—three wins, eleven points, and a -10 goal difference. Their away record is catastrophic (0W-0D-3L, 0 goals scored). However, home form is better (2W-2D-1L), and they'll need Elland Road's atmosphere. Lukas Nmecha (2 goals) and Joe Rodon provide limited attacking threat.
Aston Villa: Unai Emery's men have won three consecutive home matches (all 3-0 scorelines, including thrashing Bournemouth 4-0). However, their away form is disastrous: 0W-0D-2L. Ollie Watkins and Donyell Malen (3 goals each) share striking duties. Lucas Digne (3 assists) is a key creator from left-back.
Tactical Analysis
This is a clash of inconsistent teams: Leeds poor overall but better at home; Villa dominant at home but winless away. Villa's away xG (1.73) is actually strong, suggesting they create chances on the road but fail to convert.
Leeds will crowd the midfield and look to exploit Villa's defensive vulnerabilities away from home (conceded 2.00 goals per game on travels). Villa will try to control possession and hit on the counter.
Key Battles
- Donyell Malen vs Archie Gray: Villa's pace vs Leeds' young midfield energy
- Lukas Nmecha vs Pau Torres: Leeds' target man vs Villa's experienced defender
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Both teams' away/home splits suggest a tight, cagey affair
Leeds scored 1.50 goals/game at home; Villa's away struggles
Leeds scored in 2/2 recent home games vs top sides; Villa vulnerable away
Safer bet given Villa's superior quality
Three goals this season, Villa's in-form striker
Correct Score Prediction: Leeds 1-1 Aston Villa
League Positions: Arsenal 1st (26 pts) | Tottenham 5th (18 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- Arsenal: W-W-W-W-D (13 points)
- Tottenham: W-L-W-L-D (7 points)
Head-to-Head: Arsenal have dominated recent derbies, winning 4 of the last 5 Premier League meetings at the Emirates.
Team News
Arsenal: Mikel Arteta faces a defensive crisis. Gabriel (thigh) is out for 1-2 months following injury on Brazil duty, joining Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard, Viktor Gyokeres, Gabriel Martinelli, and Riccardo Calafiori on the sidelines. Cristhian Mosquera will partner William Saliba in central defense. Bukayo Saka (3 goals), Declan Rice (2 goals, 2 assists), and new signing Eberechi Eze provide attacking threat.
Despite the injury list, Arsenal's home form is imperious: 2.60 PPG, 12 goals scored, just 1 conceded in 5 games.
Tottenham: Thomas Frank takes charge of his first North London Derby following Ange Postecoglou's departure. Spurs are "crippled" by injuries to as many as 13 first-team players, concentrated in midfield and forward lines. Mohammed Kudus (4 assists) and Richarlison (4 goals, 2 assists) are fit, but the squad depth is severely tested.
Remarkably, Tottenham's away form (2.60 PPG) is the best in the league, while their home record (0.83 PPG) is among the worst—a bizarre statistical anomaly.
Tactical Analysis
Arsenal will dominate possession and territory, using their high press to suffocate Spurs' build-up. Arteta's side excel at exploiting space behind attacking full-backs—precisely Tottenham's weakness.
Tottenham under Frank are expected to deploy a more structured 4-3-3, abandoning Postecoglou's aggressive approach for disciplined defensive shape. They'll look to hit Arsenal on the counter through Kudus' creativity and Richarlison's movement.
Set pieces will be crucial: Arsenal have scored from 8 corners this season, while Spurs are vulnerable aerially with key defenders missing.
Key Battles
- Bukayo Saka vs Destiny Udogie: Arsenal's star winger vs Spurs' young left-back
- Declan Rice vs Pape Matar Sarr: Midfield dominance critical
- Cristhian Mosquera vs Richarlison: Gabriel's replacement under immediate pressure
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Home dominance (4 wins in last 5 derbies) + Spurs' injury crisis = clear favorite
Arsenal should win comfortably given Spurs' personnel issues
Last derby had goals; both teams' recent form suggests open game
Spurs' away scoring record (2.60 PPG) suggests they'll grab a consolation
Three goals this season, Arsenal's most dangerous attacker
Correct Score Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham
Alternative Predictions:
- Conservative: Arsenal 2-0 (if Spurs can't break down Arsenal's defense)
- Aggressive: Arsenal 3-1 or 4-1 (if Spurs' injury crisis proves too much)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24
League Positions: Man Utd 7th (18 pts) | Everton 13th (15 pts)
Form Guide (Last 5):
- United: W-W-W-D-D (11 points)
- Everton: W-W-L-D-W (10 points)
Head-to-Head: United have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, though Everton have been competitive in recent years.
Team News
Manchester United: Ruben Amorim's side have recovered from their disastrous start, winning three and drawing two of their last five. Bryan Mbeumo (5 goals) is their top scorer, supported by Casemiro (3 goals) from midfield. Benjamin Sesko (2 goals) provides depth. Lisandro Martinez (knee), Harry Maguire, and Kobbie Mainoo are injured.
United's home form (2.40 PPG) is excellent, and they've won both recent home matches 3-0.
Everton: Sean Dyche's Toffees are difficult to beat—just one defeat in their last six matches. Iliman Ndiaye (4 goals) leads the attack, with Jack Grealish (4 assists) creating from midfield. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (2 assists) adds creativity. James Garner is one booking away from suspension.
Everton's away form (1.50 PPG) is solid, and they've kept three clean sheets in six away games.
Tactical Analysis
United will control possession and probe Everton's deep block. Dyche will set up to frustrate, absorb pressure, and hit on transitions—his trademark approach. United's challenge is breaking down organized defenses; they've struggled against disciplined opponents this season.
Everton's counter-attacking threat through Ndiaye and set-piece danger (Michael Keane's aerial prowess) provide paths to goal.
Key Battles
- Bryan Mbeumo vs James Tarkowski: United's top scorer vs Everton's defensive leader
- Casemiro vs Idrissa Gueye: Physical midfield battle
Betting Analysis
Recommended Bets:
Home form strong; United's quality should prevail
Dyche teams keep games tight; expect controlled, tactical battle
United conceded at home to Brighton; Everton scored in 5/6 away games
Combined market offering value
Five goals, United's primary goal threat
Correct Score Prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Everton
4. Recommended Accumulator Bets
Conservative Accumulator (Lower Risk)
2. Liverpool to Win vs Nottm Forest @ 1.40
3. Arsenal to Win vs Tottenham @ 1.40
4. Man City to Win @ Newcastle @ 2.11
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%+)
Rationale: All four teams are heavy favorites with clear quality advantages. Perfect for accumulator builders.
Balanced Accumulator (Medium Risk)
2. Bournemouth to Win vs West Ham @ 1.62
3. Arsenal to Win vs Tottenham @ 1.40
4. Man Utd to Win vs Everton @ 1.73
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐ (70%)
Rationale: Balances banker picks with value selections. Bournemouth's home fortress should handle West Ham.
Aggressive Accumulator (Higher Risk, Higher Reward)
2. Crystal Palace to Win @ Wolves @ 2.10
3. Arsenal -1 vs Tottenham @ 2.10
4. Man City to Win @ Newcastle @ 2.11
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐ (50%)
Rationale: High-risk, high-reward strategy targeting comfortable victories. Palace vs Wolves mismatch adds value.
Goals Accumulator
2. Over 2.5 Goals: Bournemouth vs West Ham @ 1.80
3. Over 2.5 Goals: Newcastle vs Man City @ 1.90
4. Over 2.5 Goals: Arsenal vs Tottenham @ 1.95
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐ (65%)
Rationale: All four matches feature attacking teams and defensive vulnerabilities.
BTTS Accumulator
2. BTTS Yes: Bournemouth vs West Ham @ 1.90
3. BTTS Yes: Brighton vs Brentford @ 1.63
4. BTTS Yes: Man Utd vs Everton @ 1.91
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐ (60%)
Rationale: All matches feature teams with scoring threats and defensive vulnerabilities.
5. Top 10 Individual Bets (Value Ranking)
Banker selection. Quality gap insurmountable despite injuries.
Home dominance + Spurs' injury crisis = clear outcome.
Home fortress meets woeful away travelers.
Chelsea's attack (1.91 xG) vs Burnley's defense (2.00 xGA) = goals.
Wolves winless; Palace defensively sound and clinical.
Newcastle scored in every home game; City conceded in 3/5 away.
Unbeaten home record vs Brentford's 1-4 away struggles.
City's quality and recent form (4 wins in 5) decisive.
Sunderland's defensive organization vs Fulham's lack of firepower.
Six goals, facing worst defense in league (Wolves).
6. Statistical Deep Dives - Advanced Metrics
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Overperforming xG (Scoring more than expected):
- Brentford: 17 goals from 14.13 xG (+2.87) — Igor Thiago's clinical finishing driving overperformance
- Crystal Palace: 14 goals from 12.56 xG (+1.44) — Mateta's efficiency in the box
Underperforming xG (Missing chances):
- Manchester United: 19 goals from 17.28 xG (+1.72) — Slightly underperforming but within normal variance
- Liverpool: 18 goals from 16.57 xG (+1.43) — Salah's struggles impacting conversion
Best Defenses (Conceding less than expected):
- Arsenal: 5 goals conceded from 5.90 xGA (-0.90)
- Crystal Palace: 9 goals conceded from 12.56 xGA (-3.56) — Outstanding defensive organization
Worst Defenses (Conceding more than expected):
- West Ham: 23 goals conceded from 18.57 xGA (+4.43) — Goalkeeper and defensive errors
- Burnley: 22 goals conceded from 18.41 xGA (+3.59) — Championship-level defending
Home/Away Form Splits
Best Home Records (PPG):
- Arsenal - 2.60
- Bournemouth - 2.60
- Man City - 2.50
- Liverpool - 2.40
- Man Utd - 2.40
Best Away Records (PPG):
- Tottenham - 2.60 (Remarkable anomaly)
- Arsenal - 2.17
- Chelsea - 2.00
Worst Home Records (PPG):
- Wolves - 0.20 (Winless at home)
- Tottenham - 0.83 (Worst home form in top half)
Clean Sheet Percentages
| Team | Clean Sheets | CS % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 7 | 63.6% |
| Crystal Palace | 6 | 54.5% |
| Newcastle | 5 | 45.5% |
| Man City | 5 | 45.5% |
| Wolves | 0 | 0% |
| Nottm Forest | 1 | 9.1% |
7. Expert Predictions Summary
Match-by-Match Predictions
| Match | Predicted Score | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley vs Chelsea | 0-2 | 80% |
| Bournemouth vs West Ham | 2-1 | 70% |
| Brighton vs Brentford | 2-1 | 65% |
| Fulham vs Sunderland | 1-1 | 60% |
| Liverpool vs Forest | 2-0 | 75% |
| Wolves vs Crystal Palace | 2-3 | 70% |
| Newcastle vs Man City | 1-2 | 65% |
| Leeds vs Aston Villa | 1-1 | 55% |
| Arsenal vs Tottenham | 3-1 | 75% |
| Man Utd vs Everton | 2-1 | 70% |
Banker Bets (80%+ Confidence)
Match Winners:
2. Liverpool to beat Nottingham Forest @ 1.40
3. Arsenal to beat Tottenham @ 1.40
£10 stake returns £29.40
Upset Alerts (20-35% Probability)
Odds: Draw @ 3.50 | Win @ 3.60
Case: Fulham's dire form (5 defeats in 7) meets Sunderland's defensive solidity. Black Cats unbeaten in 4.
Odds: Draw @ 3.88 | Win @ 3.54
Case: St. James' Park atmosphere + Haaland's poor record there (0 goals in last 5) = potential shock.
Odds: Draw @ 3.50
Case: Villa's away record (0-2) makes them vulnerable. Leeds' home edge (1.60 PPG) could force stalemate.
8. Parting Shot: The Contrarian Take
While the markets heavily favor Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City this weekend, the true value lies in targeting Gameweek 12's compressed middle table. With seven teams on 18 points, every result matters enormously—and desperate teams playing with freedom often produce upsets.
My contrarian longshot: Sunderland to beat Fulham away at 3.60. The Black Cats' unbeaten run (2W-2D in last 4), defensive organization (10 goals conceded), and Fulham's disastrous form (5 defeats in 7) make this a genuine upset opportunity. Regis Le Bris has transformed Sunderland into the league's surprise package, and Marco Silva looks increasingly vulnerable at Craven Cottage.
My £100 Breakdown:
- £30 on conservative 3-fold (Chelsea/Liverpool/Arsenal wins)
- £30 on Bournemouth to win + BTTS doubles
- £20 on Palace to beat Wolves
- £10 on Sunderland to beat Fulham (longshot)
- £10 on Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer
Expected return: £250-300 with 70% hit rate.
Good luck, and remember: in Premier League betting, the only guarantee is that Wolves will find a way to lose.
All odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly. This analysis is for entertainment purposes.
For gambling support, visit BeGambleAware.org
Follow Sports Billy Blog for more Premier League analysis, betting tips, and match previews!
Stay ahead of the game with expert insights and comprehensive coverage.