Expert Analysis, Player Props, and Best Bets for the Wembley Stadium International Series Matchup Between Two 4-2 Playoff Contenders
The NFL's international showcase continues as the 4-2 Los Angeles Rams cross the pond to face the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium on Sunday morning. This isn't just another overseas curiosity—it's a legitimate clash between two division leaders with legitimate playoff aspirations, though both arrive nursing wounds and injury concerns. The Rams, fresh off a grueling trip to Baltimore, must now navigate 5,400 miles to London while potentially missing their offensive centerpiece. Meanwhile, the Jaguars—perennial London veterans with 13 appearances since 2013—seek to rebound from a disappointing home loss that snapped their defensive dominance. Kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET (2:30 p.m. BST) promises an early-morning caffeine jolt for American bettors, but the stakes are anything but drowsy.
Team News & Recent Form
Los Angeles Rams
- Record (Last 5 games): 3-2 (4-2 overall)
- Recent results:
- W @ Baltimore 17-3
- L vs San Francisco 23-26 (OT, TNF)
- W vs Indianapolis 27-20
- L @ Philadelphia 26-33
- W @ Tennessee 33-19
- Point differential (last five): 24.6 ppg scored, 21.4 ppg allowed
Key Storylines:
- Puka Nacua (WR): Ankle sprain suffered Week 6, status uncertain; listed day-to-day but likely to miss London game. Nacua leads NFL in receptions (54) and receiving yards (616) despite two underwhelming recent performances.
- Matthew Stafford (QB): The 36-year-old veteran is having an efficient season (1,684 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT, 8.1 Y/A). Became 10th QB to reach 60,000 career passing yards in Week 1.
- Skill Positions: With Nacua likely out, Davante Adams (4 TD, 356 yards) becomes the clear WR1; Kyren Williams leads the backfield with 368 rushing yards.
- Defense: Elite pass rush featuring Byron Young (7.5 sacks, just half a sack off NFL lead) and Jared Verse. Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (306.8 ypg).
- Injuries: Blake Corum (RB) also day-to-day; Calvin Austin III (WR, shoulder) questionable.
- Travel Fatigue: Brutal schedule—11,381 miles covered between Baltimore in Week 6 and London in Week 7.
- Playoff Implications: Tied atop NFC West at 4-2; a win solidifies division lead.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Last 5 games:
- L vs Seattle 12-20
- W vs Kansas City 31-28 (MNF upset)
- W @ San Francisco 26-21
- W vs Houston 17-10
- L @ Cincinnati 27-31
- Point differential (last five): 23.2 ppg scored, 20.0 ppg allowed
Key Storylines:
- Trevor Lawrence (QB): Up-and-down season with 1,324 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT, 81.9 rating, 47.1 QBR. Two-score rushing performance vs. KC showcased dual-threat upside.
- Skill Positions: Brian Thomas Jr. (8 rec, 90 yards vs. SEA) and Travis Hunter emerging as targets; Travis Etienne Jr. (685 rush yards, 2 TD) leads a physical ground game.
- Defense: Forced 13 takeaways in first four games (best start in NFL this century), but only 1 in last two weeks. Devin Lloyd (4 INT, 99-yard pick-six vs. KC) ruled OUT for Week 7 (calf).
- Injuries: Linebacker depth tested with Lloyd out; TE Luke Farrell also ruled out; offensive line lost Cole Strange to IR.
- London Familiarity: Massive advantage with 13 London games since 2013 vs. Rams' 3 total European appearances.
- Playoff Implications: First in AFC South at 4-2, but Colts hot on their heels at 5-1.
Probable Starting Lineups & Tactical Preview
Offense
Los Angeles Rams
- QB: Matthew Stafford
- RB: Kyren Williams, Blake Corum (Q)
- WR: Davante Adams, Tutu Atwell, Calvin Austin III (Q), Roman Wilson
- TE: Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen
- OL: Alaric Jackson, Steve Avila, Coleman Shelton, Kevin Dotson, Rob Havenstein
Jacksonville Jaguars
- QB: Trevor Lawrence
- RB: Travis Etienne Jr., Bhayshul Tuten
- WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington, Dyami Brown
- TE: Hunter Long, Johnny Mundt (Brenton Strange on IR)
- OL: Walker Little, Brandon Scherff, Mitch Morse, Ezra Cleveland, Anton Harrison
Defense
Rams
- DL/EDGE: Byron Young (7.5 sacks), Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Michael Hoecht
- LB: Ernest Jones, Christian Rozeboom
- CB/S: Tre'Davious White, Cobie Durant, Darious Williams; Kam Curl, John Johnson III
Jaguars
- DL/EDGE: Josh Allen, Travon Walker, Arik Armstead, Roy Robertson-Harris
- LB: Ventrell Miller (starting for Lloyd), Foyesade Oluokun
- CB: Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby, Jarrian Jones
- S: Andre Cisco, Darnell Savage
Schemes & Matchups
- Rams Offense: Sean McVay's play-action passing game built around Stafford's elite processing. Without Nacua, expect increased two-TE sets and reliance on Adams. Rams rank 1st in passing yards (300.6 ypg) but 21st in rushing (112.2 ypg). Red zone efficiency mediocre at 50% (24th).
- Jaguars Offense: First-year OC Liam Coen emphasizes physicality and the run game. Jaguars rank 5th in rushing (137.0 ypg) but 21st in passing (213.2 ypg). Third down struggles (35.4%, 25th) and red zone inefficiency (55%, 20th) plague them.
- Rams Defense: Aggressive 3-4 scheme with elite pass rush (Verse/Young tandem terrorizes QBs). Rams haven't allowed a rushing TD to a RB all season. Rank 8th in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense.
- Jaguars Defense: Opportunistic ball-hawking unit that feasts on turnovers. However, allowed 250.4 pass ypg (23rd) and 347.8 total ypg (23rd). Without Lloyd, middle-of-field coverage becomes vulnerable.
- Special Teams: Rams boast elite punting and coverage units (Top 5 DVOA). Jaguars solid but less spectacular; kicker Cam Little reliable, punter Logan Cooke adequate.
Coaching Edge
- Sean McVay (Rams): Offensive mastermind, 11-6 ATS in last 17 games. Known for adjusting game plans on the fly, especially with personnel losses.
- Liam Coen (Jaguars): First-year HC bringing a fresh, physical approach. Former offensive coordinator excels at establishing the run to set up play-action.
Statistical Comparison
| Key Metric | Rams | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Points For/Game | 24.6 | 25.4 |
| Points Against/Game | 21.4 | 20.0 |
| Total Yards/Game (O) | 412.8 | 350.2 |
| Total Yards/Game (D) | 332.2 | 358.2 |
| Pass Yards/Game (O) | 289.6 | 205.6 |
| Rush Yards/Game (O) | 112.2 | 137.0 |
| Third Down % (O) | 40.3% | 38.1% |
| Third Down % (D) | 35.3% | 47.0% |
| Red Zone TD % (O) | 50.0% | 76.9% |
| Turnovers (For) | +1 | +8 |
| Sacks Allowed | 9 | 6 |
| QB Rating (O) | Stafford 91.3 | Lawrence 81.9 |
- Rams Home/Road: 2-1 home, 2-1 road
- Jaguars Home/Road: 3-1 home, 1-1 road
Head-to-Head Trends
- Rams lead all-time series 5-1.
- Rams on 3-game winning streak vs. Jaguars.
- Last meeting: Rams 37, Jaguars 7 (Dec. 5, 2021).
- Jaguars' only win: 23-20 OT (Oct. 18, 2009).
Weather & Venue
- Venue: Wembley Stadium, London (outdoor, artificial turf with partial roof)
- Forecast: Clear skies, 54°F (12°C), winds 8-12 mph, <5% chance of rain. Ideal passing and kicking conditions—no weather edge for either side.
Betting Market Overview
Odds (American / Decimal):
- Spread: Rams -3 (-105; 1.95), Jaguars +3 (-115; 1.87)
- Moneyline: Rams -166 (1.60), Jaguars +140 (2.40)
- Total: 45.5 pts (O/U: Over -115, Under -105)
Player Props & Specials
- Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford o/u 250.5 (-114; 1.88)
- Rushing Yards: Travis Etienne Jr. o/u 65.5 (-110; 1.91), Kyren Williams ~55.5
- Receiving Yards: Davante Adams ~85.5, Brian Thomas Jr. ~60.5, Travis Hunter ~44.5
- Anytime TD: Travis Etienne +115 (2.15), Davante Adams +125 (2.25), Kyren Williams +110 (2.10)
- Specials: Stafford o0.5 INT (-114); Lawrence u33.5 pass attempts
Best Bets & Recommendations
- Rams -3 ATS: Despite Nacua injury, Rams' defensive superiority and Stafford's experience should prevail. Jaguars missing Lloyd is huge. Confidence: High.
- Under 45.5 Points: Both teams run-heavy, defenses stout, and international games historically trend Under. Confidence: High.
- Matthew Stafford Over 250.5 Pass Yards: Jaguars allow 250.4 pass ypg (23rd). Without Nacua, Stafford will need volume. Confidence: Medium-High.
- Travis Etienne Anytime TD (+115): Jaguars lean heavily on Etienne in red zone; Rams haven't allowed RB rushing TD but Etienne gets receiving work too. Confidence: Medium.
Live betting tip: If Rams fall behind early, Stafford's comeback prowess makes them live underdog gold. If Jaguars establish Etienne early, consider live Over.
Prediction & Conclusion
Final Score, ATS, & Rationale
Prediction: Rams 24, Jaguars 17
- Spread pick: Rams -3
- Total pick: Under 45.5
Game script: The Rams' defensive front dominates Jacksonville's pass protection, forcing Lawrence into checkdowns and rushed throws. Stafford, despite missing Nacua, spreads the ball efficiently to Adams and his tight ends, while Kyren Williams grinds out crucial yards on late-game drives. The Jaguars' red zone woes continue, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. Etienne provides a spark, but Miller's replacement at linebacker proves exploitable in coverage. The Rams' special teams control field position, and their disciplined defense limits explosive plays.
Key Advantages:
- Rams' pass rush vs. Jaguars' protection
- Stafford's poise and experience vs. Lawrence's inconsistency
- Jaguars missing Lloyd—massive blow to turnover production and middle coverage
- Rams' red zone defense vs. Jaguars' red zone offense inefficiency
- Sean McVay's game-planning brilliance, especially with adversity
Recommended Bets Recap
- Rams -3 (high confidence; defensive edge and coaching advantage)
- Under 45.5 points (high confidence; run-heavy offenses, stout defenses, London trends)
- Matthew Stafford Over 250.5 Pass Yards (medium-high confidence; Jags' pass D vulnerable)
- Travis Etienne Anytime TD +115 (medium confidence; volume and goal-line work)
Big-Picture Implications
- If Rams win: Solidifies NFC West lead; momentum heading into bye week; validates ability to win without Nacua.
- If Jaguars win: Huge statement victory; AFC South stranglehold tightens; validates Super Bowl aspirations after Chiefs upset.