Premier League Gameweek 4 Match-by-Match Preview & Betting Analysis
Complete tactical breakdown, injury updates, and value betting opportunities
Published: September 10, 2025
League Context & Current Standings
Liverpool sit atop the Premier League table with a perfect record after three gameweeks, accumulating 9 points with an impressive goal difference of +4. The Reds have been the standout performers, maintaining their championship form from last season with three consecutive victories and a goals tally of 8-4.
Chelsea occupy second place with 7 points from their opening three fixtures, boasting the league's best defensive record with just one goal conceded while scoring seven. Under their new management structure, the Blues have adapted well to tactical changes and appear to be genuine title contenders.
The traditional "Big Six" hierarchy shows some surprising early developments. Manchester City, the pre-season favorites, find themselves in 13th position with only 3 points from three matches. This represents their worst start to a Premier League season in recent memory, though their quality suggests a swift recovery is imminent.
Arsenal maintain third place with 6 points despite suffering their first defeat to Liverpool. The Gunners' early-season form has been impacted by key injuries, particularly to Bukayo Saka and William Saliba.
Current Statistical Overview
| Metric | Value | League Leader |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per game average | 2.8 | Above historical average |
| Top Scorer | Erling Haaland (3 goals) | Manchester City |
| Best Defense | Chelsea (1 goal conceded) | 67% clean sheets |
| Most Goals Scored | Liverpool (8 goals) | Leading attack |
Top Scorer Race & Individual Performance Analysis
Erling Haaland currently leads the Golden Boot race with 3 goals from 3 appearances, maintaining his prolific scoring record despite City's stuttering start. The Norwegian striker has generated 2.91 xG - nearly double any other player's expected goals tally.
A cluster of players sit on 2 goals each, creating an intriguing chase pack. João Pedro of Chelsea combines his 2 goals with 2 assists, making him one of the most well-rounded attacking threats. Arsenal's Jurrien Timber has emerged as an unexpected goalscoring threat from full-back, netting twice with 1 assist.
Creative Statistics: Bruno Fernandes leads assist attempts with 6 in just three matches, showcasing Manchester United's reliance on their Portuguese playmaker. Jack Grealish has impressed at Everton with strong underlying numbers, recording an xFPL of 8.9 despite not yet opening his goalscoring account.
Match-by-Match Comprehensive Previews
Saturday 13 September 2025
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
12:30 BST, Emirates Stadium
Team News: Arsenal face significant injury concerns with Bukayo Saka (hamstring) and William Saliba (ankle) both sidelined. Gabriel Jesus (knee) and Kai Havertz (knee) remain doubtful, potentially forcing tactical adjustments from Mikel Arteta.
Tactical Analysis: Arsenal's preferred 4-3-3 formation may be disrupted by injury absences. Nottingham Forest typically employ a 4-2-3-1 system and will look to exploit Arsenal's defensive vulnerabilities in Saliba's absence.
Recent Form: Arsenal enter with a WWL record, having secured impressive victories before falling to Liverpool. Forest's WLD sequence shows inconsistency, but they demonstrated resilience in recent fixtures.
Betting Analysis
Arsenal are heavy favorites at 1.40 for the win. The Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 offers value given both teams' attacking capabilities and Arsenal's defensive concerns.
Bournemouth vs Brighton
15:00 BST, Vitality Stadium
Team News: Bournemouth welcome back Antoine Semenyo, who leads their scoring charts with 2 goals and impressive underlying metrics. Brighton face selection decisions with several players carrying knocks.
Tactical Analysis: Both teams favor attacking football, with Bournemouth's 4-2-3-1 setup designed to maximize Semenyo's pace and movement. Brighton's tactical flexibility under their management allows for multiple formation approaches.
Betting Analysis
This fixture promises goals, with both teams possessing attacking threat. The 1.95 for Over 2.5 goals and 1.91 for Both Teams to Score present attractive options.
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland
15:00 BST, Selhurst Park
Team News: Crystal Palace miss Ismaila Sarr for 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, but Jean-Philippe Mateta remains available as their penalty taker. Sunderland have multiple defensive injuries.
Form Analysis: Palace's DWW recent form shows growing confidence, while Sunderland's WWL record demonstrates they can compete but may struggle against established opposition.
Betting Analysis
Palace to win at 1.60 offers solid value given the injury situations. Clean sheet probability of 45% for Palace makes the 'Palace to Win to Nil' an attractive proposition.
Everton vs Aston Villa
15:00 BST, Goodison Park
Team News: Everton benefit from Iliman Ndiaye's strong start (2 goals) and Jack Grealish's creative play. Villa face key absences with Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana both injured.
Key Battle: Villa's goal drought (0 goals in 3 games) against Everton's defensive solidity creates an intriguing dynamic. Everton's home advantage could prove decisive.
Betting Analysis
Everton to win at 1.90 represents good value given Villa's scoring problems. Under 2.5 goals at favorable odds reflects Villa's attacking struggles.
West Ham vs Tottenham
17:30 BST, London Stadium
Team News: Spurs face significant injury concerns with Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, and Dominic Solanke all doubtful. West Ham's Lucas Paqueta has impressed with 2 goals.
Tactical Battle: Spurs' attacking philosophy may be compromised by injuries, while West Ham's counter-attacking style could exploit defensive vulnerabilities.
Betting Analysis
Tottenham slight favorites at 2.80 despite injuries. Both Teams to Score at 1.75 looks attractive given both teams' defensive concerns.
Brentford vs Chelsea
20:00 BST, Brentford Community Stadium
Team News: Chelsea miss Levi Colwill (ACL) and Nicolas Jackson (suspension). Brentford's Igor Thiago has started well with 2 goals.
Key Matchup: João Pedro's form (2 goals, 2 assists) for Chelsea presents Brentford's biggest threat to manage.
Betting Analysis
Chelsea to win at 2.20 offers value given their superior form and squad depth.
Sunday 14 September 2025
Burnley vs Liverpool
14:00 BST, Turf Moor
Team News: Liverpool maintain near full-strength availability with Hugo Ekitike and Mohamed Salah leading their attack. Burnley face multiple injury concerns.
Form Analysis: Liverpool's perfect WWW start contrasts sharply with Burnley's WLL record.
Betting Analysis
Liverpool to win at 1.70 appears undervalued. Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 and Liverpool -1 handicap present attractive options.
Manchester City vs Manchester United
16:30 BST, Etihad Stadium
Team News: City's slow start hasn't affected Haaland's form (3 goals). United miss Lisandro Martinez and Mason Mount.
Tactical Significance: Derby matches often produce unexpected results, but City's quality and home advantage should prevail. United's defensive issues may be exposed.
Betting Analysis
City to win at 1.35 offers minimal value but maximum security. Haaland anytime scorer presents better odds for accumulator builders.
Key Betting Markets & Recommendations
Banker Selections
- Arsenal to beat Nottingham Forest 1.40 - Quality differential should tell
- Liverpool to beat Burnley 1.70 - Class gap too significant
- Manchester City to beat Manchester United 1.35 - Derby form less relevant given quality gap
Value Opportunities
- Crystal Palace to beat Sunderland 1.60 - Injury-hit visitors vulnerable
- Everton to beat Aston Villa 1.90 - Villa's goal drought continues
- Newcastle to beat Wolves 1.70 - Home advantage against struggling visitors
Accumulator Suggestions
Conservative Treble: Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City all to win 2.85/1 combined
Value Treble: Crystal Palace, Everton, Newcastle all to win 4.90/1 combined
| Goals Markets | Selection | Odds | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | Bournemouth vs Brighton | 1.95 | Both teams attacking styles |
| Both Teams to Score | West Ham vs Tottenham | 1.75 | Defensive vulnerabilities |
| Under 2.5 Goals | Everton vs Aston Villa | 2.10 | Villa's scoring drought |
Fantasy Football Implications
Captain Choices: Erling Haaland faces Manchester United at home, making him the standout captain option despite City's slow start. Mohamed Salah against Burnley provides a safer alternative.
Differential Picks: Antoine Semenyo's impressive xFPL of 23.4 makes him an attractive mid-price option. Crystal Palace defenders offer value against injury-hit Sunderland.
Players to Avoid: Ismaila Sarr's 6-8 week absence and Bukayo Saka's hamstring injury require immediate transfers.
Weather Conditions
Saturday's fixtures face mixed conditions with temperatures ranging 13-17°C and intermittent showers expected throughout the day. Sunday shows improved conditions with clearer skies, favoring the Manchester Derby and Liverpool's visit to Burnley.
Conclusion
Gameweek 4 presents fascinating tactical battles as the Premier League hierarchy begins to establish itself. Liverpool's perfect start faces its first real test against newly-promoted opposition, while Manchester City's derby encounter with United provides redemption opportunity. The injury crisis affecting multiple clubs creates value opportunities for astute bettors willing to back informed selections against popular sentiment.
Key themes include Liverpool's title credentials, City's response to slow start, and the emergence of value picks like Crystal Palace and Everton in favorable home fixtures. The weekend promises entertainment, upsets, and clarification of early season form lines.