NFL Opening Game 2025: Eagles vs Cowboys
Comprehensive Review and Betting Analysis
Game Overview
The 2025 NFL season kicks off with one of football's most heated rivalries as the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday, September 4, 2025, at 8:20 p.m. ET.
This marks the first Week 1 meeting between these NFC East rivals since 2000. The Eagles enter as 7.5-point favorites with championship expectations, while the Cowboys face uncertainty after trading their defensive superstar Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers just days before the opener.
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles - The Defending Champions
The Eagles are coming off a dominant 14-3 regular season that culminated in a 40-22 Super Bowl victory over Kansas City. Philadelphia brings back their core offensive weapons and a defense that allowed just 16.6 points per game at home last season.
Key Strengths:
- Dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 68.7% of passes for 2,903 yards and 18 TDs, while adding 630 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns
- Elite rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley, who led the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, and yards per game in 2024 with 2,504 total yards
- Dominant pass defense that led the league in yards allowed per pass attempt
- Home field advantage with an 11-game home winning streak
Injury Concerns:
- Landon Dickerson (back/knee) - The Pro Bowl guard missed Monday's practice with a back injury after recently undergoing meniscus surgery
- Andrew Mukuba (hamstring) - Limited participation, may impact secondary depth
Dallas Cowboys - Seeking Redemption
The Cowboys are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 7-10 season that saw them miss the playoffs. The return of quarterback Dak Prescott, who played just eight games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury, provides hope for offensive improvement.
Key Additions:
- George Pickens - Acquired via trade, led NFL with 18.1 yards per reception in 2023
- Javonte Williams - New running back to bolster ground game
- Kenny Clark - Defensive tackle acquired in Parsons trade
Major Concerns:
- Micah Parsons trade impact - Loss of their best pass rusher significantly weakens an already struggling defense
- Defensive vulnerabilities - Ranked 31st in points allowed and 4th-worst in rushing yards allowed per game last season
- Coaching transition - First-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer faces immediate pressure
Historical Context and Recent Performance
Philadelphia has dominated this rivalry recently, sweeping the 2024 season series with a combined score of 75-13 in two blowout victories. The Eagles won 34-6 in Arlington during Week 10 and secured a 41-7 victory in Philadelphia in Week 17.
Despite Dallas leading the all-time series 74-58, the Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Philadelphia.
Betting Analysis
Current Odds and Lines
| Market | Line | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eagles -7.5 (-110) | 1.91 |
| Moneyline | Eagles -389 | 1.26 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys +307 | 4.07 |
| Total | Over/Under 47.5 (-110) | 1.91 |
The spread moved from Eagles -7 to -7.5 following the Parsons trade, with some books showing it as high as -8.5. According to BetMGM, 80% of the betting money is backing the Eagles to cover.
Key Betting Factors
Why Eagles Can Cover:
- Dominant recent history against Dallas with two blowout wins in 2024
- Saquon Barkley's success - rushed for 233 yards on 5.1 YPC in two games vs Cowboys last season
- Home field advantage - 11-game home winning streak and 6-of-7 ATS in NFC East games
- Defensive pressure - Cowboys without Parsons face an Eagles offense that excels at explosive plays
Why Cowboys Can Cover:
- Dak Prescott's return provides offensive stability after missing most of 2024
- George Pickens addition gives Dallas another elite receiving threat alongside CeeDee Lamb
- Motivation factor - Cowboys seeking revenge after being outscored 75-13 last season
- Historical trends - Dallas is 8-0 ML and 7-1 ATS in September division games since 2017
Player Props
| Player | Prop | Odds | Decimal | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Anytime TD | -165 | 1.61 | Scored TD in 8 games last season, facing weak Cowboys run defense |
| Saquon Barkley | 110+ Rushing Yards | +146 | 2.46 | Averaged 147 yards in 2024 Eagles wins vs Cowboys |
| A.J. Brown | 80+ Receiving Yards | +140 | 2.40 | Hit this mark in 8 of 13 games last season |
| Jalen Hurts | 40+ Rushing Yards | +108 | 2.08 | Mobile QB facing Cowboys defense missing Parsons |
| George Pickens | Over 55.5 Rec Yards | -114 | 1.88 | Cowboys likely trailing, inexperienced Eagles CBs |
Expert Predictions and Model Projections
SportsLine Projection Model (31-15 in 2024):
- Recommends the Over on 47.5 points
- Projects one side of spread hitting nearly 60% of simulations
ESPN FPI:
- Gives Eagles 66.4% chance to win outright
- Projects Eagles by 6.7 points
Dimers Model:
- Eagles 73% win probability vs Cowboys 27%
- Projected final score: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
Final Recommendation
The Philadelphia Eagles present excellent value as 7.5-point home favorites in the NFL opener. The combination of their championship-caliber roster, recent dominance over Dallas, and the Cowboys' defensive deficiencies following the Parsons trade creates a compelling betting opportunity.
Best Bets:
- Eagles -7.5 (-110) [1.91] - Primary recommendation
- Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown (-165) [1.61] - High probability prop
- Under 47.5 (-110) [1.91] - Secondary total play
The defending champions should make a statement in their home opener, with the Cowboys' rebuilding defense unable to contain Philadelphia's explosive offense in a hostile Lincoln Financial Field environment.