After a disappointing campaign that saw Los Blancos finish second in both La Liga and the Copa del Rey, the appointment of the former Bayer Leverkusen boss signals a fresh era at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Title Contenders and Betting Markets
The Favorites
Barcelona 11/10 to 6/5
Embed from Getty ImagesBarcelona enter as defending champions and slight underdogs despite their domestic treble last season. Hansi Flick's side dominated La Liga with 102 goals - the highest tally in Europe's top leagues - finishing four points ahead of Real Madrid.
Opta's supercomputer gives Barcelona a 46.5% chance of retaining their title, reflecting confidence in their established system and the continued development of generational talents like Lamine Yamal, who remains a Ballon d'Or contender.
Real Madrid 4/5 to 10/11
Embed from Getty ImagesReal Madrid are bookmakers' favorites despite last season's disappointments. The appointment of Xabi Alonso as head coach represents the most significant change, bringing tactical innovation that helped Bayer Leverkusen to their historic Bundesliga triumph.
The departure of club legends Luka Modrić (to AC Milan) and Lucas Vázquez signals the end of an era, but Alonso inherits a squad still featuring Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and Vinícius Jr.
Atlético Madrid 8/1 to 10/1
Embed from Getty ImagesAtlético Madrid represent the most intriguing dark horses after their most ambitious transfer window in years. Diego Simeone has overseen a squad revolution exceeding €200 million in investment, building on last year's acquisitions of Julián Álvarez (€100m) and Alexander Sørloth (€25m).
However, integrating so many new players presents a significant challenge, with Opta giving them just an 11.7% title chance.
Transfer Market Analysis
Real Madrid's Defensive Revolution
Los Blancos have addressed their defensive frailties with targeted investments. Trent Alexander-Arnold brings elite crossing ability and passing range to the right flank, while Dean Huijsen and Álvaro Carreras offer youth and pace in central defense. Franco Mastantuono adds attacking versatility to complement their established stars.
Barcelona's Pragmatic Approach
Financial constraints have forced Barcelona into a measured transfer strategy. Joan García provides succession planning in goal, while Marcus Rashford's loan arrival offers pace and attacking threat without significant initial outlay. Strategic departures include Clément Lenglet (permanent to Atlético Madrid), Ansu Fati (loan to Monaco), and Pablo Torre (€5m to Mallorca) to optimize resources.
Atlético Madrid's Ambitious Gamble
Los Colchoneros have made the boldest statement in the transfer market. Beyond Baena and Cardoso, they've secured defensive reinforcements including Matteo Ruggeri (€20m from Atalanta) and Dávid Hancko (€26m). This massive investment represents their strongest title bid in years, though squad integration remains crucial.
European Qualification Structure
Embed from Getty ImagesLa Liga will again have five Champions League spots after earning an additional European Performance Spot through strong coefficient performance. The breakdown for 2025-26:
Champions League (5 teams):
Top 4 finishers plus 5th place due to coefficient ranking
Europa League (2 teams):
6th and 7th place finishers
Conference League (1 team):
8th place finisher
This expanded European participation means eight teams will compete in continental competition, with Mallorca currently occupying the crucial 8th position.
Promoted Teams and Survival Prospects
Levante 1000/1
Return to La Liga as Segunda División champions after three seasons in the second tier. José Luis Morales, "El Comandante," remains their emotional core at 38 years old, providing leadership and experience for their survival battle.
Elche 1000/1
Secured automatic promotion under former Barcelona assistant Eder Sarabia, who previously worked with Las Palmas and the Catalans. Their return to the top flight comes after a brief spell in Segunda, having last faced Barcelona in 2022-23.
Real Oviedo 1000/1
Complete the promoted trio with their first La Liga appearance since 2000-01. Their promotion story is remarkable, with supporters purchasing shares to save the club from bankruptcy over a decade ago. Veteran Santi Cazorla, now 40, remains a key figure alongside 35-year-old Salomón Rondón.
All three promoted teams face challenging survival battles, with Oviedo and Elche both priced at 1/1 (50% chance) for relegation, while Levante sits at 7/5 (41.67%).
Relegation Battle
Beyond the promoted trio, several established clubs face potential relegation concerns:
Espanyol 2/1 for relegation have lost key goalkeeper Joan García to Barcelona for €25m without adequate reinvestment. Their lack of summer activity raises survival concerns.
Alavés 11/4 and Osasuna 7/2 both face uncertainty, while traditional powerhouse Sevilla 5/1 continues to struggle after recent disappointing campaigns.
The relegation battle appears more competitive than recent seasons, with Girona remarkably finding themselves at 4/1 for relegation despite their previous third-place finish just two seasons ago.
Individual Award Predictions
Pichichi Trophy (Golden Boot)
Embed from Getty ImagesKylian Mbappé 4/5 enters as overwhelming favorite to retain the Pichichi after his debut season yielded 31 goals. Despite an inconsistent start initially, the Frenchman proved devastatingly effective and should benefit from full adaptation to Spanish football.
Robert Lewandowski 27/20 to 6/4 remains the primary challenger after scoring 27 goals last season. The Polish striker's first-half form was exceptional under Flick, though injury disrupted his second-half campaign.
Alexander Sørloth 9/1 to 12/1 and Julián Álvarez 16/1 provide Atlético Madrid with dual threats, while Barcelona's Raphinha 10/1 could emerge as a dark horse.
PFA Player of the Year
Lamine Yamal and Florian Wirtz (if he joins) lead early predictions, though team success typically influences this award heavily.
The Battle for European Places
Villarreal and Athletic Club compete for the crucial 4th Champions League spot, with Opta's projections favoring the Yellow Submarine at 13.8% chance compared to Athletic's 13.2%. Both clubs have European experience that could prove valuable.
Real Betis has established themselves as Europa League regulars under Manuel Pellegrini, while Real Sociedad, Valencia, and Sevilla battle for Conference League qualification.
Dark Horses and Potential Surprises
Embed from Getty ImagesVillarreal under Marcelino could challenge for Champions League qualification with their experienced squad and tactical discipline. Athletic Club enters with momentum from their strong previous campaign and the emotional boost of playing European football at San Mamés.
Real Betis turned into the league's most consistent team during 2025's second half and could continue that trajectory. Their possession-based style under Pellegrini remains effective against most opposition.
Season Outlook
The 2025-26 La Liga campaign presents the most open title race in years. While Real Madrid's managerial change and defensive reinforcements make them favorites, Barcelona's established chemistry and Flick's tactical system provide strong counterarguments. Atlético Madrid's massive investment could yield dividends if squad integration succeeds.
The relegation battle appears particularly competitive, with traditional clubs facing genuine survival concerns alongside the promoted trio. With eight European spots available, nearly half the league maintains continental ambitions throughout the season.
Kylian Mbappé's adaptation and Lamine Yamal's continued development represent individual storylines that could shape the title race. The appointment of Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid adds tactical intrigue to El Clásico encounters that will likely determine the championship.
The stage is set for one of La Liga's most compelling seasons, with quality throughout the division and genuine uncertainty around both the title race and European qualification battles.