This highly anticipated clash between Hammarby and Mjällby features two of Allsvenskan's top-performing teams in the 2025 season. Hammarby enters the match with strong home form and solid defensive statistics, while Mjällby brings an impressive away performance and potent attacking prowess. Based on current form, historical matchups, and key statistical indicators, this match promises to deliver an exciting, goal-rich encounter with both teams having legitimate paths to victory.
Current Form and League Standing
Hammarby currently occupies a strong position in the Allsvenskan table, sitting in the top four with impressive overall form. With 6 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss in their league campaign, they have accumulated 21 points from 10 matches, averaging an impressive 2.1 points per game. This performance reflects their consistency throughout the 2025 season thus far.
Mjällby, meanwhile, has been equally impressive, if not more so. They currently lead the Allsvenskan table with 23 points from 10 matches, having secured 7 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss. Their recent form has been particularly strong, collecting 12 points from their last 5 matches (2.4 points per game average) compared to Hammarby's 9 points in the same period.
Both teams enter this fixture in good form. Hammarby is unbeaten in their last 6 matches, having won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5 games. Mjällby has lost just once in their previous 5 matches, winning the other 4, indicating slightly better recent form.
Home vs Away Performance
Hammarby's Home Dominance
Hammarby's home form has been exceptional this season, making the Tele2 Arena a fortress. They remain unbeaten at home with an impressive record of 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 matches. Their attacking output has been particularly noteworthy, scoring 12 goals in these 5 home matches (2.40 goals per match) while conceding just 3 (0.60 goals per match).
This home record includes convincing victories such as a 4-0 win against IFK Göteborg and 2-0 wins against both Malmö FF and Djurgårdens. Their only non-win at home was a 1-1 draw against Norrköping, demonstrating their consistency in front of their supporters.
Mjällby's Away Strength
Mjällby has proven to be formidable on their travels, with a 60% win rate in away matches. They have scored consistently on the road, averaging 2.4 goals per away match while conceding 1.2 goals. This attacking mindset has resulted in Mjällby scoring in each of their last 5 away fixtures, creating a significant threat to Hammarby's strong home defense.
Their consistency in away performances makes them dangerous opponents, even at a traditionally difficult venue like Tele2 Arena.
Attacking and Defensive Capabilities
Hammarby's Offensive and Defensive Balance
Hammarby has demonstrated excellent balance between attack and defense this season. They average 1.90 goals scored per match, which is rated as "Very Good" according to statistics. Defensively, they concede just 0.70 goals per match, rated as "Excellent".
Their expected goals (xG) statistics reinforce this impression, with Hammarby generating an xG of 2.05 at home, indicating strong attacking prospects. Defensively, their expected goals against (xGA) at home is just below 1.00 (0.98), the best in the Allsvenskan for home matches.
The match against Djurgården on April 13, 2025, exemplifies their attacking efficiency, where they generated an xG of 2.25, converting this into 2 goals, while limiting their opponents to an xG of just 0.39.
Mjällby's Goal-Scoring Threat
Mjällby brings significant offensive firepower to this match, having scored 12 goals in their last 5 fixtures. They average 2.33 goals per match overall and 2.4 goals per away match, demonstrating their attacking capabilities regardless of venue.
Defensively, they have shown some vulnerability on the road, conceding 1.2 goals per away match on average. However, they still maintain the best xGA for away matches in the Allsvenskan at 1.31, suggesting their defense might be stronger than raw statistics indicate.
Head-to-Head Record and History
The history between these two clubs is remarkably balanced, with 13 previous meetings yielding 6 wins for Hammarby, 5 wins for Mjällby, and 2 draws. The most recent encounter resulted in a 4-2 victory for Hammarby, indicating that matches between these sides often produce goals.
Previous matches have averaged 2.62 goals, with both teams scoring in 31% of their encounters. This suggests that while goals are common in this fixture, both teams finding the net is less frequent than might be expected given their respective scoring records.
Interestingly, Hammarby's home advantage against Mjällby has historically been significant, as evidenced by their ability to score multiple goals against them at Tele2 Arena.
Statistical Indicators and Key Metrics
Goals and Scoring Patterns
Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring form. Hammarby has found the net in every home game this season and has scored in their last 5 home matches. Similarly, Mjällby has scored in their last 9 consecutive games across all venues.
The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) metric suggests a high likelihood of both teams finding the net in this encounter. BTTS has occurred in 3 of Hammarby's last 5 games (40% of their total matches this season) and in 4 of Mjällby's last 5 games (78% of their total matches).
Set Pieces and Corner Kicks
Corner kicks could play a significant role in this match. Hammarby averages 10.34 corners per match, which is 11% more than Mjällby's average of 9.33 corners. This suggests that Hammarby may have more attacking set-piece opportunities, potentially creating additional scoring chances.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
The xG statistics provide valuable insight into both teams' performances. Hammarby's home xG of 2.05 and away xG of 1.86 demonstrates their consistent attacking threat regardless of venue. Mjällby's away xGA of 1.31 indicates that while they're defensively sound on their travels, they do concede quality chances to their opponents.
Key Players to Watch
Hammarby's offensive output has been led by several key contributors. Nahir Besara stands as their top scorer with 8 goals, while Erabi, Abdelrahman Saidi, and Abraham have each contributed 6 goals this season. Madjed has added 5 goals to the team's tally. The diversity of goal-scorers indicates that Hammarby possesses multiple attacking threats that Mjällby will need to contain.
Hammarby's captain, Nahir Besara, has been a consistent leader, featuring as captain in most of their matches this season and contributing significantly to their offensive output.
Betting Insights and Market Analysis
Match Outcome Odds
The betting markets reflect Hammarby's home advantage, with odds ranging from 1.80 (SkyBet) to 1.85 (Smarkets) for a home win. A draw is priced at 3.45–3.70, while Mjällby's away victory offers higher returns at 4.19–4.34. These odds align with Hammarby's unbeaten home record (4 wins, 1 draw) and Mjällby's strong away form (60% win rate). Historical trends in Allsvenskan show home wins occur 43% of the time, making Hammarby's odds a statistically sound baseline.
Goals Markets
Over/Under 2.5 Goals stands out as a high-probability market, with odds of 1.83–1.95. This aligns with both teams' offensive metrics: Hammarby averages 1.90 goals per match, while Mjällby scores 2.40 goals away. Their combined xG (expected goals) of 4.36 (Hammarby: 2.05 home xG; Mjällby: 2.31 away xG) further supports this bet. Notably, Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 53% of Hammarby's home games and 67% of Mjällby's away fixtures.
The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market offers odds of 1.84–1.95, reflecting conflicting trends. While historical head-to-head matches saw BTTS in only 31% of encounters, recent form tells a different story: Hammarby has BTTS in 40% of home games, and Mjällby in 80% of away matches. This discrepancy suggests value in backing BTTS, as Mjällby's improved attacking output (12 goals in 5 away games) could break the historical pattern.
Ancillary Markets
Corners present another opportunity, with Over 9.5 Corners priced at 1.50. Hammarby averages 10.34 corners per home game, while Mjällby's away matches average 9.33 corners, creating a cumulative baseline of 12+ corners in previous meetings. The Asian Handicap Corners market shows Hammarby favored at -1.5 corners with odds of 1.825.
For risk-tolerant bettors, Correct Score predictions vary:
- 2-1 to Hammarby (odds: 8.00–9.00) aligns with their narrow home wins against top-half teams.
- 3-0 to Hammarby (odds: 11.00) reflects their dominant home clean sheet record.
- 1-1 Draw (odds: 6.50) accounts for Mjällby's resilience in away fixtures.
First-Half Markets
The First-Half Over 1.5 Goals market at 2.60 odds is underpinned by both teams' early aggression. Hammarby scores 47% of their goals in the first half, while Mjällby concedes 55% of away goals before halftime. Additionally, Hammarby to Win First Half offers 2.10 odds, supported by their 44% first-half win rate at home.
Asian Handicap Analysis
The Asian Handicap market favors Hammarby with a -0.5 handicap at 1.80 odds. However, Mjällby's +0.5 handicap at 2.00 odds provides value given their ability to secure draws or narrow losses against top teams. For a safer option, the Draw No Bet market offers 1.40 odds for Hammarby.
Risk Considerations
While Hammarby's defensive xGA (expected goals against) of 0.98 at home suggests a potential clean sheet (odds: 2.65), Mjällby's nine-game scoring streak makes this unlikely. Similarly, the Double Chance 1X market at 1.76 odds provides a safety net for those wary of Mjällby's upset potential.
Conclusion
The betting landscape for this fixture emphasizes goal-centric markets, with Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS offering the most balanced risk-reward profiles. Hammarby's home dominance justifies their favoritism, but Mjällby's attacking consistency ensures this match remains highly competitive. For ancillary bets, corners and first-half goals provide supplementary value in a game likely to feature end-to-end action.
Top Value Picks:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83–1.95
- BTTS Yes @ 1.84–1.95
- Hammarby -0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80
- Correct Score 2-1 to Hammarby @ 8.00–9.00
Bettors should monitor lineup news, particularly Hammarby's potential absences (Nahir Besara, Shaquille Pinas), which could shift market dynamics pre-kickoff.